AbstractPrediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is essential to better prepare for and mitigate the TC-induced disasters. Although many studies have attempted to predict TC activity on various time scales, very few focused on near-future predictions. Here we show a decrease in seasonal TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) for 2016–2030 using a track-pattern-based TC prediction model. The TC model is forced by long-term coupled simulations initialized using reanalysis data. Unfavorable conditions for TC development including strengthened vertical wind shear, enhanced low-level anticyclonic flow, and cooled sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical NA are found in the simulations. Most of the environmental changes are attributable to cooling of the NA basin-wide SST (NASST) and more frequent El Niño episodes in the near future. Consistent NASST warming trend in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 projections suggests that natural variability is more dominant than anthropogenic forcing over the NA in the near-future period.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Aug 4, 2017
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