Multi-model prediction skills of the Somali and Maritime-Continent cross-equatorial flows

Multi-model prediction skills of the Somali and Maritime-Continent cross-equatorial flows AbstractPredictive skills of the Somali cross-equatorial flow (CEF) and the Maritime-Continent (MC) CEF during boreal summer are assessed using three ensemble seasonal forecasting systems, including the coarse-resolution Predictive Ocean Atmospheric Model for Australia (POAMA, version 2), the intermediate-resolution Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change (SINTEX-F), and the high-resolution seasonal prediction version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-S1) model. Retrospective prediction results suggest that prediction of the Somali CEF is more challenging than that of the MC CEF. While both the individual models and the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean show useful skill (with the anomaly correlation coefficient being above 0.5) in predicting the MC CEF up to 5-month lead, only the ACCESS-S1 and MME can skilfully predict the Somali CEF up to 2-month lead. Encouragingly, the CEF-seesaw index (defined as the difference of the two CEFs as a measure of the negative phase relation between them) can be skilfully predicted up to 4-5 months ahead by the SINTEX-F, ACCESS-S1, and MME. Among the three models, the high-resolution ACCESS-S1 model generally shows the highest skill in predicting the individual CEFs, the CEF-seesaw, as well as the CEF-seesaw index related precipitation anomaly pattern in Asia and northern Australia. Consistent with the strong influence of ENSO on the CEFs, the skill in predicting the CEFs depends on the model’s ability in predicting not only the eastern Pacific SST anomaly but also the anomalous Walker Circulation that brings ENSO's influence upon the CEFs. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Multi-model prediction skills of the Somali and Maritime-Continent cross-equatorial flows

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/multi-model-prediction-skills-of-the-somali-and-maritime-continent-WhXLPzy2js
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0272.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractPredictive skills of the Somali cross-equatorial flow (CEF) and the Maritime-Continent (MC) CEF during boreal summer are assessed using three ensemble seasonal forecasting systems, including the coarse-resolution Predictive Ocean Atmospheric Model for Australia (POAMA, version 2), the intermediate-resolution Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change (SINTEX-F), and the high-resolution seasonal prediction version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-S1) model. Retrospective prediction results suggest that prediction of the Somali CEF is more challenging than that of the MC CEF. While both the individual models and the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean show useful skill (with the anomaly correlation coefficient being above 0.5) in predicting the MC CEF up to 5-month lead, only the ACCESS-S1 and MME can skilfully predict the Somali CEF up to 2-month lead. Encouragingly, the CEF-seesaw index (defined as the difference of the two CEFs as a measure of the negative phase relation between them) can be skilfully predicted up to 4-5 months ahead by the SINTEX-F, ACCESS-S1, and MME. Among the three models, the high-resolution ACCESS-S1 model generally shows the highest skill in predicting the individual CEFs, the CEF-seesaw, as well as the CEF-seesaw index related precipitation anomaly pattern in Asia and northern Australia. Consistent with the strong influence of ENSO on the CEFs, the skill in predicting the CEFs depends on the model’s ability in predicting not only the eastern Pacific SST anomaly but also the anomalous Walker Circulation that brings ENSO's influence upon the CEFs.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Jan 15, 2018

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off