AbstractPredictive skills of the Somali cross-equatorial flow (CEF) and the Maritime-Continent (MC) CEF during boreal summer are assessed using three ensemble seasonal forecasting systems, including the coarse-resolution Predictive Ocean Atmospheric Model for Australia (POAMA, version 2), the intermediate-resolution Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change (SINTEX-F), and the high-resolution seasonal prediction version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-S1) model. Retrospective prediction results suggest that prediction of the Somali CEF is more challenging than that of the MC CEF. While both the individual models and the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean show useful skill (with the anomaly correlation coefficient being above 0.5) in predicting the MC CEF up to 5-month lead, only the ACCESS-S1 and MME can skilfully predict the Somali CEF up to 2-month lead. Encouragingly, the CEF-seesaw index (defined as the difference of the two CEFs as a measure of the negative phase relation between them) can be skilfully predicted up to 4-5 months ahead by the SINTEX-F, ACCESS-S1, and MME. Among the three models, the high-resolution ACCESS-S1 model generally shows the highest skill in predicting the individual CEFs, the CEF-seesaw, as well as the CEF-seesaw index related precipitation anomaly pattern in Asia and northern Australia. Consistent with the strong influence of ENSO on the CEFs, the skill in predicting the CEFs depends on the model’s ability in predicting not only the eastern Pacific SST anomaly but also the anomalous Walker Circulation that brings ENSO's influence upon the CEFs.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Jan 15, 2018
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