MITIGATING THE RISKS OF RAPID EVENT ATTRIBUTION IN THE GRAY LITERATURE s ophie C. Lewis Rapid extreme event attribution and communication of results through gray literature provide useful information for stakeholders and the public but warrant fur ther community discussion regarding how to mitigate potential risks. he attribution of extreme weather and climate blogs, and/or the mainstream media. Near-real-time events to a particular cause is an expanding attribution analyses are often complemented by later T scientific field. Extreme event attribution stud- peer-reviewed publication. ies focus on a particular extreme and commonly As a result of this rapid disciplinary evolution, combine observational and model data to deter- scientif ic practice in the f ield of attribution— mine whether specific factors (e.g., anthropogenic focused in the first instance on rapidity and broad greenhouse gases) contributed to a specific observed communication—diverges notably from traditional aspect of the event (e.g., its intensity, magnitude, or approaches to science, in which analyses are peer frequency). A key aspect of the development of the reviewed and then published, without an emphasis field of event attribution is an enhanced focus on op- on timeliness. This essay explores facets of this rapid erational attribution, in which analyses are
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Oct 3, 2017
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