Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting: Report from a Workshop, 25-27 July 1994 Harold E. Brooks,* M. Steven Tracton,+ David J. Stensrud,* Geoffrey DiMego,+ and Zoltan Toth+# spectively, to begin operational MREF in the very near 1. Introduction future. At the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and An informal workshop on the application of en- Oceanography Center (FNMOC), they have plans to semble techniques to short-range (0-48 h) numerical start MREF in 1995 (M. A. Rennick 1994, personal weather prediction (NWP) was held at the National communication.) Meteorological Center (NMC) in Cam p Springs, Mary- Ensemble forecasting, as discussed by Brooks and land, on 25-2 7 July 1994. This workshop was spon- Doswell (1993), represents a very different philo- sored jointly by the NMC and the National Severe sophical view of NWP than the traditional approach of Storms Laboratory. Approximately 50 individuals with producing the best single forecast possible. The en- experienc e in ensemble forecasting on longer semble approach addresses the uncertainties of the timescales, probabilistic forecasting, and the applica- forecast process by providing information on prob- tion of sub-synoptic-scale numerical models of the abilities of different outcomes. [For a recent discus- atmosphere attended. The purpose of this paper is to sion of
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Sep 1, 1995
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