The Hurricane Landfall Workshop Summary Russell L. Elsberry* and Frank D. Marks Jr.4 The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) casters improved track guidance that will 1) increase effort on hurricane landfall is focused on what the the preparation lead time by at least 12 h, 2) extend meteorological research community can contribute to the length of forecasts to 96 h with the same accuracy a reduction in the nation's vulnerability to dangerous as the present 72-h guidance, and 3) use new tech- and costly impacts. Because of the growth in popula- niques that provide measures of confidence that will tion (4.5% per year) and industry along the coast from reduce the present 4:1 overwarning of coastal areas Galveston, Texas, to Miami, Florida, the United States to a ratio of 2:1 in 90% of hurricane landfalls that are has become more vulnerable to tropical cyclones. In essentially perpendicular to the coastline. coastal communities that are prone to suffer damage The Hurricane Landfall Workshop (17-20 Novem- and offer limited escape routes, the emergency man- ber 1997) participants prioritized research and obser- agement community must have accurate forecasts vational opportunities to achieve these pre-landfall when heavy precipitation and winds exceeding gale track
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Apr 1, 1999
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