Ensemble Forecasting in the Short to Medium Range: Report from a Workshop Thomas M. Hamill,* + Steven L. Mullen/ Chris Snyder,* Zoltan Toth,@ and David P. Baumhefner* 1. Introduction error in ensemble forecasts, and 3) the use, utility, and interpretation of ensemble forecasts. A workshop on ensemble forecasting in the short to In this meeting summary, we first provide some medium ranges (0-14 days forecast lead time) was held background on ensemble forecasting. We also com- at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boul- pare the current state of our knowledge to what was der, Colorado, 9-1 1 September 1999. Approximately 45 known at the last U.S. ensemble forecasting workshop people attended this workshop, with approximately a in 1994 (Brooks et al. 1995). Next, we provide sum- quarter joining us from outside the United States. The maries and recommendations from each of the three purpose of the workshop was to discuss the current workshop sessions and end with a brief conclusion. state of knowledge of ensemble forecasting, to define the most important research problems for the next few years, and to seek common evaluation methods and 2. Background and recent progress in tools. The sessions in this workshop
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Nov 1, 2000
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