PREDICTING HURRICANE LANDFALL PRECIPITATION Optimistic and Pessimistic Views from the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes BY RUSSELL L. ELSBERRY If the USWRP goal for 72-h quantitative precipitation forecasts in hurricanes is going to be achieved, it will require coordinated efforts by observationalists, modelers, and forecasters. ne goal of the U.S. Weather Research Program areas as small as 10-20 mile2, or river floods in areas (USWRP; Elsberry and Marks 1999) is to dem- of 1000 mile2. Clearly, rainfall has to be resolved on Oonstrate the feasibility of numerical guidance less than 1-mile scales for flash floods, and perhaps that would allow 72-h quantitative precipitation fore- 5-mile scales for river floods. Furthermore, the record casts (QPF) for hurricanes, thereby improving day 3 rainfall rates of tropical cyclones are well known. forecasts for inland flooding. This goal raises serious Given this threat of flooding, what QPF guidance can questions about the predictability limit for tropical cy- be offered now, and what is necessary to improve that clone precipitation over the ocean, during landfall, guidance? The USWRP's focus on hurricane landfall and inland. The goal was thus a motivation for devot- precipitation has already increased research into this ing a session of the Symposium
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Sep 1, 2002
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