Global Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones James Lighthill,* Greg Hollands William Gray,# Christopher Landsea,# George Craig,@ Jenni Evans,& Yoshio Kurihara,** and Charles Guard++ Abstract The authors conclude that, even though the possibility of some minor indirect effects of global warming on TC frequency and intensity cannot be excluded, they must effectively be "swamped" by large This paper offers an overview of the authors' studies during a natural variability. specialized international symposium (Mexico, 22 November-1 De- cember 1993) where they aimed at making an objective assessment of whether climate changes, consequent on an expected doubling of atmospheric C0 in the next six or seven decades, are likely to 1. Introduction increase significantly the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones (TC). Out of three methodologies available for addressing the ques- tion they employ two, discarding the third for reasons set out in the As part of the joint World Meteorological Organiza- appendix. tion/International Council of Scientific Unions (WMO/ In the first methodology, the authors enumerate reasons why, in ICSU) program on tropical cyclone disasters it was tropical oceans, the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) agreed that the WMO/ICSU Third International Work- suggested by climate change models might be expected to
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Nov 1, 1994
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