Long-Range Persistence in Global Surface Temperatures Explained by Linear Multibox Energy Balance Models

Long-Range Persistence in Global Surface Temperatures Explained by Linear Multibox Energy Balance... AbstractThe temporal fluctuations in global mean surface temperature are an example of a geophysical quantity that can be described using the notions of long-range persistence and scale invariance/scaling, but this description has suffered from lack of a generally accepted physical explanation. Processes with these statistical signatures can arise from nonlinear effects, for instance, through cascade-like energy transfer in turbulent fluids, but they can also be produced by linear models with scale-invariant impulse–response functions. This paper demonstrates that, on time scales from months to centuries, the scale-invariant impulse–response function of global surface temperature can be explained by simple linear multibox energy balance models. This explanation describes both the scale invariance of the internal variability and the lack of a characteristic time scale of the response to external forcings. With parameters estimated from observational data, the climate response is approximately scaling in these models, even if the response function is not chosen to be scaling a priori. It is also demonstrated that the differences in scaling exponents for temperatures over land and for sea surface temperatures can be reproduced by a version of the multibox energy balance model with two distinct surface boxes. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Long-Range Persistence in Global Surface Temperatures Explained by Linear Multibox Energy Balance Models

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/long-range-persistence-in-global-surface-temperatures-explained-by-0VN4XUTYu3
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
eISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0877.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe temporal fluctuations in global mean surface temperature are an example of a geophysical quantity that can be described using the notions of long-range persistence and scale invariance/scaling, but this description has suffered from lack of a generally accepted physical explanation. Processes with these statistical signatures can arise from nonlinear effects, for instance, through cascade-like energy transfer in turbulent fluids, but they can also be produced by linear models with scale-invariant impulse–response functions. This paper demonstrates that, on time scales from months to centuries, the scale-invariant impulse–response function of global surface temperature can be explained by simple linear multibox energy balance models. This explanation describes both the scale invariance of the internal variability and the lack of a characteristic time scale of the response to external forcings. With parameters estimated from observational data, the climate response is approximately scaling in these models, even if the response function is not chosen to be scaling a priori. It is also demonstrated that the differences in scaling exponents for temperatures over land and for sea surface temperatures can be reproduced by a version of the multibox energy balance model with two distinct surface boxes.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Sep 6, 2017

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off