Comment s on "Operational Omission 1) Trace events such as flurries and drizzle and 2) POPs are optional when precipitation is occurring an d Misuse of Numerical Precipitation or imminent, when warnings are issued, or when Probability Expressions": Part I the forecast areas are huge. Vislocky et al. (1995) present an interesting and Perhaps a reluctance of operational forecasters to thought provoking look at the numerical "probability of include specific, numerical POP statements in the precipitation" (hereafter referred to as POP) state- forecasts stems from a widespread perception that ments in National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts. the public does not understand these expressions. The authors appear to be strong proponents of the Curtis and Murphy (1985) have some empirical evi- inclusion of POP statements in public forecasts and dence to indicate that "interested" people in the gen- their utility. Their criticism of the inconsistent usage of eral public do not understand POP statements, POPs has merit and can stimulate discussion as to the whether properly or improperly expressed. Sink (1995) proper usage of these expressions. presents compelling evidence that there is confusion in understanding POPs in public forecasts throughout As an NWS forecaster who writes forecasts that a diverse
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Oct 1, 1995
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