AbstractA compositing scheme that predicts changes in tropical precipitation under climate change from changes in near-surface relative humidity (RH) and temperature is presented. As shown by earlier work, regions of high tropical precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) are associated with high near-surface RH and temperature. Under climate change, we find that high precipitation continues to be associated with the highest surface RH and temperatures in most CMIP5 GCMs, meaning that it is the “rank” of a given GCM gridbox with respect to others that determines how much precipitation falls rather than the absolute value of surface temperature or RH change, consistent with the weak temperature gradient approximation. Further, we demonstrate that the majority of CMIP5 GCMs are close to a threshold near which reductions in land RH produce large reductions in the RH-ranking of some land regions, causing reductions in precipitation over land, particularly South America, and compensating increases over ocean. Recent work on predicting future changes in specific humidity allows us to predict the qualitative sense of precipitation change in some GCMs when land surface humidity changes are unknown. However, the magnitudes of predicted changes are too small. Further study, perhaps into the role of radiative and land-atmosphere feedbacks that we neglect, is necessary.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Mar 8, 2017
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera