STATISTICAL INFERENCE AND PREDICTION IN CLIMATOLOGY: c2 Alden Electronics A BAYESIAN APPROACH c3 Atmospheric Instrumentation Research, Inc. c4 Belfort Instrument Company 1202 Airborne Research Corporation 1198 Climatronics Corporation by Edward S. Epstein 1160 Environmental Satellite Data 1166 Florida State University 1165 Oceanroutes, Inc. This monograph is intended to introduce 1159 Permagon Press 1144 Qualmetrics som e concepts of statistical inference and pre- 1163 Setra Systems diction that are not generally treated in th e tradi- 1156 Teledyne tional college course in statistics, and have not 1157 Unisys 1158 Vaisala seen their way into th e technical literature gen- 1164 WeatherDisc Associates erally available to the practicing climatologist. 1091 WSI Corporation Even today, where Bayesian methods are pre- sented the practical aspects of their application AMS Publications, Preprints, etc. are seldom emphasized. Using examples drawn 1181 AMA Annual Meeting 1180 AMS Newsletter fro m climatology and meteorology covering 1167 AMS Short Course on Graphical Methods for Data Analysis probabilistic processes ranging from Bernoulli 1215 AMS Videotapes to normal to autoregression, methods for quan- 1139 Association of American Weather Observers 1186 The Atmosphere: A Wall Chart tifying beliefs as concise probability statements 1216 Employment Announcements are described, and th e implications of new data 1214 Field Guide to the Atmosphere 1199 Glossary of Meteorology o n beliefs and of beliefs on predictions are 1185 Handbook of Applied Meteorology developed . 1213 International Cloud Atlas 1199 Journal of Applied Meteorology 1214 Lectures on Air Pollution 1185 Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts ABOU T THE AUTHOR 1199 New from WMO 1182 Radar in Meteorology 1185 Snowstorms along the Northeastern Coast of the United States Edwar d S. Epstein, a fello w of both the Ameri- 1161 Spacious Skies can Meteorological Society and the American 1216 Statistical Influence 1214 Thor's Legions Association for the Advancemen t of Science, is 1200 Weather Satellites presently principal scientist of th e Climat e Analy- sis Cente r in th e National Weathe r Service's Na- tional Meteorological Center. Among the po- sitions he has previously held at the National Oceani c and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA ) are those of associate administrator for environmenta l monitoring and predictio n (1973- 78), director of the National Climate Program employment announcements Offic e (1978-81), an d chief of the National Envi- ronmental , Data and Information Service's Cli- mate and Earth Science Laboratory (1981-83). Th e American Meteorological Society issues employment Befor e joining NOA A he was professor of mete announcement s monthly , settin g fort h opportunitie s fo r posi - orolog y and chairman of the Department of At- tion s in the atmospheri c an d oceanographi c fields. Th e em- mospheri c and Oceanic Science at the Univer- ployer s describe the prerequisite s an d requirements fo r the sity of Michigan. openings . Member s an d nonmember s ma y subscrib e t o th e announce - $30 AM S Members ments . Th e subscriptio n price fo r a calenda r yea r (12 monthl y $45 Nonmembers issues ) is $ 6 fo r AM S member s an d $25 fo r nonmember s (add (plus $3 postage/handling) $1 0 fo r mailin g to a foreig n address ; monthl y issues will be sen t via air mail). Afte r Jul y 1, half-yea r subscription s (for Send order and remittance to: Jul y throug h Decembe r issues) ar e availabl e at on e half of AMERICA N METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY th e above annua l prices. 45 Beaco n St. Th e purpos e of th e Employmen t Announcement s is t o pro - vid e a mean s by which those seeking position s in the atmo- Boston, M A 02108 spheri c an d relate d fields an d thos e requirin g personne l t o fill suc h opening s ma y hav e a convenien t mean s of communica - Meteorologica l ISBN: 0-933876-62-9 tion . Organizations that wish to avail themselves of this Monograph s ISBN: 0065-9401 servic e should contact Lisa Greene, American Meteoro- logica l Society, 45 Beaco n Street, Boston , M A 02108 (617- 227-2425) , fo r details an d charges. • Vol. 70, No. 9, September 1989
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Sep 1, 1989
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