IMPROVING SEASONAL PREDICTION PRACTICES THROUGH ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY

IMPROVING SEASONAL PREDICTION PRACTICES THROUGH ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY The Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium of the Applied Research Centers is engaging in a real-time activity to detect and understand the role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in observed climate anomalies. The activity is aimed to improve practices in seasonal climate forecasting by fully harvesting the accumulated research evidence of the climate's sensitivity to ocean forcing. The approach, in the first phase of the activity, involves performing ensembles of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) at several institutions, using the most recently observed global SST anomalies as prescribed forcings. The runs are routinely updated each month as the latest SST observations become available, adding to the archive of historical simulations spanning the last half-century.The SST-forced signal in the seasonal mean climate is detected through the agreement among ensemble mean anomalies drawn from the simulations of the various AGCMs. The consortium activity also compares the dynamically forced signals with those estimated empirically, based on the observational archive. A comparison of the coordinated simulations with the observed climate anomalies is then made for two principal reasons: 1) to offer an attribution for the ocean's role in the origin of the observed seasonal climate anomalies, and 2) to determine the causes for success or failure of operational seasonal climate predictions, whose tools may be either mainly dynamically or empirically derived. It is expected that routine climate diagnostics and attribution efforts for climate anomalies will help further develop the knowledge base for improving the practice of seasonal climate predictions, and advance understanding of global climate on seasonal to decadal time scales. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

IMPROVING SEASONAL PREDICTION PRACTICES THROUGH ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/improving-seasonal-prediction-practices-through-attribution-of-climate-0FVMtiLH0N
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/BAMS-86-1-59
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium of the Applied Research Centers is engaging in a real-time activity to detect and understand the role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in observed climate anomalies. The activity is aimed to improve practices in seasonal climate forecasting by fully harvesting the accumulated research evidence of the climate's sensitivity to ocean forcing. The approach, in the first phase of the activity, involves performing ensembles of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) at several institutions, using the most recently observed global SST anomalies as prescribed forcings. The runs are routinely updated each month as the latest SST observations become available, adding to the archive of historical simulations spanning the last half-century.The SST-forced signal in the seasonal mean climate is detected through the agreement among ensemble mean anomalies drawn from the simulations of the various AGCMs. The consortium activity also compares the dynamically forced signals with those estimated empirically, based on the observational archive. A comparison of the coordinated simulations with the observed climate anomalies is then made for two principal reasons: 1) to offer an attribution for the ocean's role in the origin of the observed seasonal climate anomalies, and 2) to determine the causes for success or failure of operational seasonal climate predictions, whose tools may be either mainly dynamically or empirically derived. It is expected that routine climate diagnostics and attribution efforts for climate anomalies will help further develop the knowledge base for improving the practice of seasonal climate predictions, and advance understanding of global climate on seasonal to decadal time scales.

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Jan 4, 2005

There are no references for this article.

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off