AbstractThere is a significant relationship between the preceding winter El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the subsequent East Asian summer rainfall (EASR), and this relationship is helpful for seasonal forecasting in East Asia. This study investigated the relationship between the preceding winter ENSO and EASR in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and compared the results with those from the CMIP3 models. In general, the CMIP5 models capture the ENSO–EASR relationship more realistically than the CMIP3 models. For instance, approximately two-thirds of the CMIP5 models capture the ENSO–EASR relationship, while less than one-third of the CMIP3 models capture the relationship. Further investigation suggests that the improvement could be attributed to simulating the physical processes of ENSO’s impact on the EASR more realistically in the CMIP5 models, particularly the effect of ENSO on tropical Indian Ocean SST and the effect of Indian Ocean SST anomalies on the atmospheric convection over the Philippine Sea. However, there is large diversity in the ENSO–EASR relationship in the CMIP5 models, and most of the models underestimate the relationship. This underestimation comes from the underestimation of the physical processes, particularly from the underestimated impact of the atmospheric convection over the Philippine Sea on the EASR. The CMIP5 models that capture the ENSO–EASR relationship well/bad also show high/low skill in representing the physical processes.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Mar 7, 2017
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.
Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.
It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera