AbstractWe propose a new method, called contour-shifting, for correcting the bias in forecasts of contours such as sea ice concentration above certain thresholds. Retrospective comparisons of observations and dynamical model forecasts are used to build a statistical spatiotemporal model of how predicted contours typically differ from observed contours. Forecasted contours from a dynamical model are then adjusted to correct for expected errors in their location. The statistical model changes over time to reflect the changing error patterns that result from reducing sea ice cover in the satellite era in both models and observations. For an evaluation period from 2001-2013, these bias-corrected forecasts are on average more accurate than the unadjusted dynamical model forecasts for all forecast months in the year at four different lead times. The total area which is incorrectly categorized as containing sea ice or not is reduced by 3.3 × 105 km2 (or 21.3%) on average. The root mean squared error of forecasts of total sea ice area is also reduced for all lead times.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Aug 28, 2017
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