Improved consistency of climate projections over Europe after accounting for atmospheric circulation variability

Improved consistency of climate projections over Europe after accounting for atmospheric... AbstractThe influence of atmospheric circulation on winter temperature and precipitation trends over Europe in the period 2006-2050 is investigated in a 21-member initial condition ensemble from a fully-coupled global climate model and in a multi-model framework consisting of 40 different models. Five versions of a dynamical adjustment method based on empirical orthogonal function analysis of sea level pressure are introduced and their performance in removing the effect of atmospheric circulation on temperature and precipitation is tested. The differences in atmospheric circulation as simulated by different models in their control runs and under the historical and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios are investigated. Dynamical adjustment is applied to the multi-model ensemble to demonstrate that a substantial fraction of the uncertainty in projected European temperature and precipitation trends is explained by atmospheric circulation variability. A statistically significant response of sea level pressure to anthropogenic forcing is identified in the multi-model ensemble under the RCP8.5 scenario. This forced response in atmospheric circulation is associated with a dynamical contribution to the long-term multi-model mean temperature and precipitation trends. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the impact of atmospheric circulation variability on trends in regional climate projections. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Improved consistency of climate projections over Europe after accounting for atmospheric circulation variability

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0695.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe influence of atmospheric circulation on winter temperature and precipitation trends over Europe in the period 2006-2050 is investigated in a 21-member initial condition ensemble from a fully-coupled global climate model and in a multi-model framework consisting of 40 different models. Five versions of a dynamical adjustment method based on empirical orthogonal function analysis of sea level pressure are introduced and their performance in removing the effect of atmospheric circulation on temperature and precipitation is tested. The differences in atmospheric circulation as simulated by different models in their control runs and under the historical and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios are investigated. Dynamical adjustment is applied to the multi-model ensemble to demonstrate that a substantial fraction of the uncertainty in projected European temperature and precipitation trends is explained by atmospheric circulation variability. A statistically significant response of sea level pressure to anthropogenic forcing is identified in the multi-model ensemble under the RCP8.5 scenario. This forced response in atmospheric circulation is associated with a dynamical contribution to the long-term multi-model mean temperature and precipitation trends. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the impact of atmospheric circulation variability on trends in regional climate projections.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Jun 28, 2017

References

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