AbstractThe present study investigates the impact of various central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) warming on tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the period 1948-2015 based on observational and reanalysis data. Four distinctly different forms of tropical Pacific warming are identified to examine different impacts of locations and intensity of tropical Pacific warming on the WNP TCs. It is shown that WNP TC activity related to ENSO shows stronger sensitivity to the intensity of CP SST warming. The locations of TC genesis in an extreme EP El Niño featuring concurrent strong CP and EP warming (CEPW) display notable southeastward shift that is generally similar to the CP El Niño featuring CP warming alone (CPW). These influences are clearly different from the effects of moderate EP El Niño associated with EP warming alone (EPW). The above influences of Pacific warming on TCs are possibly via atmsopheric circulation variability. Anomalous convection associated with CP SST warming drives anomalous low-level westerlies away from the equator as a result of Gill-type Rossby wave response, leading to an enhanced broad-zone, eastward-extending monsoon trough (MT). Anomalous Walker circulation in response to EP SST warming drives an increase in anomalous equatorial westerlies over the WNP, leading to a narrow zone, slightly equatorward shift of the eastward-extending MT. These changes in MT coincide with a shift in large-scale environments and synoptic-scale perturbations, which favor TC genesis and development. In addition, during weaker EP SST warming (WEPW) with similar intensity to CPW, local SST forcing exhibit primary control on WNP TCs and atmospheric circulation.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Nov 28, 2017
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