Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on Weeks 3 and 4 Forecast Skill in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on Weeks 3 and 4 Forecast Skill in the NCEP Global... AbstractThe GEFS is being extended from 16-d to 35-d to cover the subseasonal period, bridging weather and seasonal forecasts. In this study, the impact of SST forcing on the extended-range land-only global 2-m temperature, CONUS accumulated precipitation, and MJO skill are explored with the GEFSv11 under various SST forcing configurations. The configurations consist of (1) the operational GEFS 90-d e-folding of the observed RTG-SST anomaly relaxed to climatology; (2) an optimal AMIP configuration using the observed daily RTG-SST analysis; (3) a 2-tier approach using the CFSv2 predicted daily SST; and 4) a 2-tier approach using bias-corrected CFSv2 predicted SST, updated every 24-h. The experimental period covers the fall of 2013 and the winter of 2013-2014. The results indicate that there are small differences in RPSS between the various SST forcing experiments. The improvement of forecast skill of the Northern Hemisphere 2-m temperature and precipitation for weeks 3 & 4 are marginal, especially for North America. The bias-corrected CFSv2 predicted SST experiment generally has superior performance with statistically significant improvement in spatially and temporally aggregated 2-m temperature RPSS over North America. Improved representation of the SST forcing (AMIP) increased the forecast skill for MJO indices up through week 2, but there is no significant improvement of the MJO forecast skill for weeks 3 & 4. These results are obtained over a short period with weak MJO activity and also subject to internal model weaknesses in representing the MJO. Additional studies covering longer periods with upgraded model physics are warranted. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Weather and Forecasting American Meteorological Society

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on Weeks 3 and 4 Forecast Skill in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0434
D.O.I.
10.1175/WAF-D-17-0093.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe GEFS is being extended from 16-d to 35-d to cover the subseasonal period, bridging weather and seasonal forecasts. In this study, the impact of SST forcing on the extended-range land-only global 2-m temperature, CONUS accumulated precipitation, and MJO skill are explored with the GEFSv11 under various SST forcing configurations. The configurations consist of (1) the operational GEFS 90-d e-folding of the observed RTG-SST anomaly relaxed to climatology; (2) an optimal AMIP configuration using the observed daily RTG-SST analysis; (3) a 2-tier approach using the CFSv2 predicted daily SST; and 4) a 2-tier approach using bias-corrected CFSv2 predicted SST, updated every 24-h. The experimental period covers the fall of 2013 and the winter of 2013-2014. The results indicate that there are small differences in RPSS between the various SST forcing experiments. The improvement of forecast skill of the Northern Hemisphere 2-m temperature and precipitation for weeks 3 & 4 are marginal, especially for North America. The bias-corrected CFSv2 predicted SST experiment generally has superior performance with statistically significant improvement in spatially and temporally aggregated 2-m temperature RPSS over North America. Improved representation of the SST forcing (AMIP) increased the forecast skill for MJO indices up through week 2, but there is no significant improvement of the MJO forecast skill for weeks 3 & 4. These results are obtained over a short period with weak MJO activity and also subject to internal model weaknesses in representing the MJO. Additional studies covering longer periods with upgraded model physics are warranted.

Journal

Weather and ForecastingAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Nov 9, 2017

References

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