AbstractSignificant advances have been made in understanding the key climate factors responsible for tropical cyclone (TC) activity, yet any theory that estimates likelihood of observed TC formation rates from mean climate states remains elusive. The present study investigates how the extremes of observed TC genesis (TCG) frequency during peak TC seasons are interrelated with distinct changes in the large-scale climate conditions over different ocean basins using the global best-track dataset (IBTrACS) and ERA-Interim reanalysis for the period 1979-2014. Peak TC seasons with significantly high and low TCG frequency are identified for five major ocean basins, and their substantial spatial changes in TCG are noted with regionally distinct differences. To explore the possible climate link behind such changes, a suite of potentially relevant dynamical and thermodynamical climate conditions are analyzed. Results indicate that the observed changes in extreme TCG frequency are closely linked with distinct dominance of specific dynamical and thermodynamical climate conditions over different regions. While the combined influences of dynamical and thermodynamical climate conditions are found to be necessary for modulating TC formation rate over the North Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Southern Indian Ocean, significant changes in large-scale dynamical conditions appear to solely control the TCG frequency over the Western Pacific and Southern Pacific basins. Estimation of the fractional changes in genesis-weighted climate conditions also indicates the coherent but distinct competing effects of different climate conditions on TCG frequency. The present study further points out the need for revising the existing genesis indices for estimating TCG frequency over individual basins.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Aug 4, 2017
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