Impact of Coupling with an Ice-Ocean Model on Global Medium-Range NWP Forecast Skill

Impact of Coupling with an Ice-Ocean Model on Global Medium-Range NWP Forecast Skill AbstractThe importance of coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean for forecasting on timescales of hours to weeks has been demonstrated for a range of physical processes. Here, we evaluate the impact of an interactive air-sea coupling between an operational global deterministic medium-range weather forecasting system and an ice-ocean forecasting system. This system was developed in the context of an experimental forecasting system that is now running operationally at the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction. We show that the most significant impact is found to be associated with a decreased cyclone intensification, with a reduction in the tropical cyclone false alarm ratio. This results in a 15% decrease in standard deviation errors in geopotential height fields for 120-h forecasts in areas of active cyclone development, with commensurate benefits for wind, temperature and humidity fields. Whereas impacts on surface fields are found locally in the vicinity of cyclone activity, large-scale improvements in the mid-to-upper troposphere are found with positive global implications for forecast skill. Moreover, coupling is found to produce fairly constant reductions in standard deviation error growth for forecast days 1-7 of about 5% over the northern extratropics in July-August and 15% over the tropics in January-February. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time a statistically significant positive impact of coupling has been shown in an operational global medium-range deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction framework. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Monthly Weather Review American Meteorological Society

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0493
D.O.I.
10.1175/MWR-D-17-0157.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe importance of coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean for forecasting on timescales of hours to weeks has been demonstrated for a range of physical processes. Here, we evaluate the impact of an interactive air-sea coupling between an operational global deterministic medium-range weather forecasting system and an ice-ocean forecasting system. This system was developed in the context of an experimental forecasting system that is now running operationally at the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction. We show that the most significant impact is found to be associated with a decreased cyclone intensification, with a reduction in the tropical cyclone false alarm ratio. This results in a 15% decrease in standard deviation errors in geopotential height fields for 120-h forecasts in areas of active cyclone development, with commensurate benefits for wind, temperature and humidity fields. Whereas impacts on surface fields are found locally in the vicinity of cyclone activity, large-scale improvements in the mid-to-upper troposphere are found with positive global implications for forecast skill. Moreover, coupling is found to produce fairly constant reductions in standard deviation error growth for forecast days 1-7 of about 5% over the northern extratropics in July-August and 15% over the tropics in January-February. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time a statistically significant positive impact of coupling has been shown in an operational global medium-range deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction framework.

Journal

Monthly Weather ReviewAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Feb 27, 2018

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