Global Influence of Tropical Pacific Variability with Implications for Global Warming Slowdown

Global Influence of Tropical Pacific Variability with Implications for Global Warming Slowdown AbstractThe impact of internal tropical Pacific variability on global mean surface temperature (GMST) is quantified using a multimodel ensemble. A tropical Pacific index (TPI) is defined to track tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The simulated GMST is highly correlated with TPI on the interannual time scale but this correlation weakens on the decadal time scale. The time-scale dependency is such that the GMST regression equation derived from the observations, which are dominated by interannual variability, would underestimate the magnitude of decadal GMST response to tropical Pacific variability. The surface air temperature response to tropical Pacific variability is strong in the tropics but weakens in the extratropics. The regression coefficient of GMST against TPI shows considerable intermodel variations, primarily because of differences in high latitudes. The results have important implications for the planned intercomparison of pacemaker experiments that force Pacific variability to follow the observed evolution. The model dependency of the GMST regression suggests that in pacemaker experiments—model performance in simulating the recent “slowdown” in global warming—will vary substantially among models. It also highlights the need to develop observational constraints and to quantify the TPI effect on the decadal variability of GMST.Compared to GMST, the correlation between global mean tropospheric temperature and TPI is high on both interannual and decadal time scales because of a common structure in the tropical tropospheric temperature response that is upward amplified and meridionally broad. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Global Influence of Tropical Pacific Variability with Implications for Global Warming Slowdown

17 pages
Read Article

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/global-influence-of-tropical-pacific-variability-with-implications-for-sWA6y0e2Sv
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
eISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0496.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe impact of internal tropical Pacific variability on global mean surface temperature (GMST) is quantified using a multimodel ensemble. A tropical Pacific index (TPI) is defined to track tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The simulated GMST is highly correlated with TPI on the interannual time scale but this correlation weakens on the decadal time scale. The time-scale dependency is such that the GMST regression equation derived from the observations, which are dominated by interannual variability, would underestimate the magnitude of decadal GMST response to tropical Pacific variability. The surface air temperature response to tropical Pacific variability is strong in the tropics but weakens in the extratropics. The regression coefficient of GMST against TPI shows considerable intermodel variations, primarily because of differences in high latitudes. The results have important implications for the planned intercomparison of pacemaker experiments that force Pacific variability to follow the observed evolution. The model dependency of the GMST regression suggests that in pacemaker experiments—model performance in simulating the recent “slowdown” in global warming—will vary substantially among models. It also highlights the need to develop observational constraints and to quantify the TPI effect on the decadal variability of GMST.Compared to GMST, the correlation between global mean tropospheric temperature and TPI is high on both interannual and decadal time scales because of a common structure in the tropical tropospheric temperature response that is upward amplified and meridionally broad.

Journal

Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society

Published: Apr 18, 2017

References

  • Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content
    Balmaseda, M. A.; Trenberth, K. E.; Källén, E.
  • ENSO representation in climate models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5
    Bellenger, H.; Guilyardi, E.; Leloup, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.
  • The sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness and its dependence on the surface albedo parameterization
    Björk, G.; Stranne, C.; Borenäs, K.
  • The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6
    Boer, G. J.
  • Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models
    Brown, P.; Li, W.; Xie, S.-P.
  • Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration
    Chen, X.; Tung, K.-K.
  • The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate
    Chylek, P.; Klett, J. D.; Lesins, G.; Dubey, M. K.; Hengartner, N.
  • Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability
    Dai, A.; Fyfe, J. C.; Xie, S.-P.; Dai, X.
  • The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
    Dee, D. P.
  • GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics
    Delworth, T. L.
  • ENSO and Pacific decadal variability in Community Climate System Model version 4
    Deser, C.
  • Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise
    Domingues, C. M.; Church, J. A.; White, N. J.; Gleckler, P. J.; Wijffels, S. E.; Barker, P. M.; Dunn, J. R.
  • Is the climate warming or cooling?
    Easterling, D. R.; Wehner, M. F.
  • Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus
    England, M. H.
  • The annual cycle of the energy budget. Part II: Meridional structures and poleward transports
    Fasullo, J. T.; Trenberth, K. E.
  • Global temperature evolution 1979–2010
    Foster, G.; Rahmstorf, S. G.
  • Making sense of the early-2000s global warming slowdown
    Fyfe, J. G.
  • Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales
    Gleckler, P. J.
  • Earth’s energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications
    Hansen, J.
  • The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Niño
    Ineson, S.; Scaife, A. A.
  • Arctic climate change: Observed and modeled temperature and sea-ice variability
    Johannessen, O. M.
  • Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection
    Johnson, N. C.; Xie, S.-P.
  • The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
    Kalnay, E.
  • Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008
    Kaufmann, R. K.; Kauppi, H.; Mann, M. L.; Stock, J. H.
  • The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics
    Kobayashi, S.
  • A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance
    Kopp, G.; Lean, J. L.
  • Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
    Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S.-P.
  • The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming
    Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S.-P.
  • Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model–data differences at decadal and longer periods
    Laepple, T.; Huybers, P.
  • World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010
    Levitus, S.
  • Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus
    Liu, W.; Xie, S.-P.; Lu, J.
  • Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty
    Loeb, N. G.; Lyman, J. M.; Johnson, G. C.; Allen, R. P.; Doelling, D. R.; Wong, T.; Soden, B. J.; Stephens, G. L.
  • Robust warming of the global upper ocean
    Lyman, J. M.; Good, S. A.; Gouretski, V. V.; Ishii, M.; Johnson, G. C.; Palmer, M. D.; Smith, D. M.; Willis, J. K.
  • Effects of volcanism on tropical variability
    Maher, N.; McGregor, S.; England, M. H.; Sen Gupta, A.
  • Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods
    Meehl, G. A.; Arblaster, J. M.; Fasullo, J. T.; Hu, A.; Trenberth, K. E.
  • Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation
    Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Arblaster, J. M.; Fasullo, J.; Trenberth, K. E.
  • ENSO theory
    Neelin, J. D.; Battisti, D. S.; Hirst, A. C.; Jin, F.-F.; Wakata, Y.; Yamagata, T.; Zebiak, S. E.
  • Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia
    Power, S.; Casey, T.; Folland, C.; Colman, A. V.; Mehta, V.
  • Determining the tropopause height from gridded data
    Reichler, T.; Dameris, M.; Sausen, R.
  • Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends
    Santer, B. D.
  • Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes
    Santer, B. D.
  • Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale
    Santer, B. D.
  • Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature
    Santer, B. D.
  • Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature
    Santer, B. D.
  • Observed multivariable climate signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity
    Santer, B. D.
  • Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006)
    Smith, T. M.; Reynolds, R. W.; Peterson, T. C.; Lawrimore, J.
  • The weak temperature gradient approximation and balanced tropical moisture waves
    Sobel, A. H.; Nilsson, J.; Polvani, L. M.
  • The persistently variable “background” stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change
    Solomon, S.; Daniel, J. S.; Neely, R. R.; Vernier, J.-P.; Dutton, E. G.; Thomason, L. W.
  • Impacts of external forcing on the decadal climate variability in CMIP5 simulations
    Song, Y.; Yu, Y.
  • Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures
    Steinman, B. A.; Mann, M. E.; Miller, S. K.
  • An overview of the CMIP5 experiment design
    Taylor, K. E.; Stouffer, R. J.; Meehl, G. A.
  • Identifying signatures of natural climate variability in time series of global-mean surface temperature: Methodology and insights
    Thompson, D. W. J.; Wallace, J.; Jones, P.; Kennedy, J.
  • Has there been a hiatus?
    Trenberth, K. E.
  • The vertical structure of temperature in the tropics: Different flavors of El Niño
    Trenberth, K. E.; Smith, L.
  • Evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures
    Trenberth, K. E.; Caron, J. M.; Stepaniak, D. P.; Worley, S.
  • Earth’s global energy budget
    Trenberth, K. E.; Fasullo, J. T.; Kiehl, J.
  • Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records
    Tung, K.-K.; Zhou, J.
  • Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus
    Watanabe, M.; Shiogama, H.; Tatebe, H.; Hayashi, M.; Ishii, M.; Kimoto, K.
  • The effect of climate sensitivity on the response to volcanic forcing
    Wigley, T. M. L.; Ammann, C. M.; Santer, B. D.; Raper, S. C. B.
  • Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus
    Xie, S.-P.; Kosaka, Y.; Okumura, Y. M.
  • ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93
    Zhang, Y.; Wallace, J. M.; Battisti, D. S.

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.

Try 2 weeks free now

DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

or browse the journals available

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off

Sign up
for free
Start 14 day
Free Trial