Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Neighborhood Approaches: A Review and Recommendations

Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Neighborhood... Abstract“Neighborhood approaches” have been used in two primary ways to postprocess and verify high-resolution ensemble output. While the two methods appear deceptively similar, they define events over different spatial scales and yield fields with different interpretations: the first produces probabilities interpreted as likelihood of event occurrence at the grid scale, while the second produces probabilities of event occurrence over spatial scales larger than the grid scale. Unfortunately, some studies have confused the two methods, while others did not acknowledge multiple possibilities of neighborhood approach application and simply stated, “a neighborhood approach was applied” without supporting details. Thus, this paper reviews applications of neighborhood approaches to convection-allowing ensembles in hopes of clarifying the two methods and their different event definitions. Then, using real data, it is demonstrated how the two approaches can yield statistically significantly different objective conclusions about model performance, underscoring the critical need for thorough descriptions of how neighborhood approaches are implemented and events are defined. The authors conclude by providing some recommendations for application of neighborhood approaches to convection-allowing ensembles. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Monthly Weather Review American Meteorological Society

Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Neighborhood Approaches: A Review and Recommendations

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/generating-probabilistic-forecasts-from-convection-allowing-ensembles-WzT44E4B0f
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0493
eISSN
1520-0493
D.O.I.
10.1175/MWR-D-16-0400.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract“Neighborhood approaches” have been used in two primary ways to postprocess and verify high-resolution ensemble output. While the two methods appear deceptively similar, they define events over different spatial scales and yield fields with different interpretations: the first produces probabilities interpreted as likelihood of event occurrence at the grid scale, while the second produces probabilities of event occurrence over spatial scales larger than the grid scale. Unfortunately, some studies have confused the two methods, while others did not acknowledge multiple possibilities of neighborhood approach application and simply stated, “a neighborhood approach was applied” without supporting details. Thus, this paper reviews applications of neighborhood approaches to convection-allowing ensembles in hopes of clarifying the two methods and their different event definitions. Then, using real data, it is demonstrated how the two approaches can yield statistically significantly different objective conclusions about model performance, underscoring the critical need for thorough descriptions of how neighborhood approaches are implemented and events are defined. The authors conclude by providing some recommendations for application of neighborhood approaches to convection-allowing ensembles.

Journal

Monthly Weather ReviewAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Sep 19, 2017

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

Monthly Plan

  • Read unlimited articles
  • Personalized recommendations
  • No expiration
  • Print 20 pages per month
  • 20% off on PDF purchases
  • Organize your research
  • Get updates on your journals and topic searches

$49/month

Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial

Best Deal — 39% off

Annual Plan

  • All the features of the Professional Plan, but for 39% off!
  • Billed annually
  • No expiration
  • For the normal price of 10 articles elsewhere, you get one full year of unlimited access to articles.

$588

$360/year

billed annually
Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial