AbstractA 10-member ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is used to analyse the Caribbean’s future climate when mean global surface air temperatures are 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial (1861-1900) values. The global warming targets are attained by the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s respectively for RCP 4.5. The Caribbean on average exhibits smaller mean surface air temperature increases than the globe, although there are parts of the region that are always warmer than the global warming targets. In comparison to the present (using a 1971-2000 baseline), the Caribbean domain is 0.5 °C to 1.5 °C warmer at the 1.5 °C target, 5-10% wetter except for the northeast and southeast Caribbean which are drier, and experiences increases in annual warm spells of more than 100 days. At the 2.0 °C target, there is additional warming by 0.2 °C-1.0 °C, a further extension of warm spells by up to 70 days, a shift to a predominantly drier region (5-15% less than present-day), and a greater occurrence of droughts. The climate patterns at 2.5 °C indicate an intensification of the changes seen at 2.0 °C. The shift in the rainfall pattern between 1.5 °C (wet) and 2.0 °C (dry) for parts of the domain has implications for regional adaptation pursuits. The results provide some justification for the lobby by the Caribbean Community and Small Island Developing States to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as embodied in the slogan “1.5 to Stay Alive”.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Jan 17, 2018
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera