AbstractHow to extract the causal relations in climate-cyclone interactions is an important problem in atmospheric science. Traditionally the most commonly used research methodology in this field is time-delayed correlation analysis. This may be not appropriate, since correlation cannot imply causality as it lacks the needed asymmetry or directedness between dynamical events. In this study, we introduced to this field a recently developed and very concise but rigorous formula, i.e., a formula for information flow (IF), to fulfill the purpose. We proposed a new way to normalize the IF, and then used the normalized IF (NIF) to detect the causal relation between the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) and a variety of climate modes. It is shown that El Niño–Southern Oscillation as well as Pacific decadal oscillation are the dominant factors that modulate the WNP TC genesis. Besides, the western Pacific subtropical high and the monsoon trough are also playing important roles in affecting, respectively, the TCs in the western and eastern regions of the WNP. With these selected climate indices as predictors, a method of fuzzy graph evolved from a nonparametric Bayesian process (BNP-FG), which is capable of handling situations with insufficient samples, is employed to perform a seasonal TC forecast. A forecast with the classic Poisson regression is also conducted for comparison. We found that the BNP-FG model together with the causality analysis can provide a satisfactory estimation of the numbers of TC genesis observed in recent years. Considering its generality, it is expected to be applicable in other climate-related predictions.
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology – American Meteorological Society
Published: Dec 5, 2017
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera