AbstractSpatially and temporally varying adaptive inflation algorithms have been developed to combat the loss of variance during the forecast due to various model and sampling errors. The adaptive Bayesian scheme of Anderson uses available observations to update the Gaussian inflation distribution assigned for every state variable. The likelihood function of the inflation is computed using model-minus-data innovation statistics. A number of enhancements for this inflation scheme are proposed. To prevent excessive deflation, an inverse gamma distribution for the prior inflation is considered. A non-Gaussian distribution offers a flexible framework for the inflation variance to evolve during the update. The innovations are assumed random variables, and a correction term is added to the mode of the likelihood distribution such that the observed inflation is slightly larger. This modification improves the stability of the adaptive scheme by limiting the occurrence of negative and physically intolerable inflations. The enhanced scheme is compared to the original one in twin experiments using the Lorenz-63 model, the Lorenz-96 model, and an idealized, high-dimensional atmospheric model. Results show that the proposed enhancements are capable of generating accurate and consistent state estimates. Allowing moderate deflation is shown to be useful.
Monthly Weather Review – American Meteorological Society
Published: Feb 27, 2018
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.
Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.
It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera