Diagnosing Human-Induced Dynamic and Thermodynamic Drivers of Extreme Rainfall

Diagnosing Human-Induced Dynamic and Thermodynamic Drivers of Extreme Rainfall AbstractFactors responsible for extreme monthly rainfall over Texas/Oklahoma during May 2015 are assessed. The event had a return period of at least 400 years, compared to the prior record which was roughly a 100-year event. The event challenges attribution science to disentangle factors because it occurred during a strong El Niño, a natural pattern of variability that affects the region’s springtime rains, and during the warmest global mean temperatures since 1880. Effects of each factor are diagnosed, as is the interplay between El Niño dynamics and human-induced climate change.Analysis of historical climate simulations reveals El Niño was a necessary condition for monthly rains to occur having the severity of May 2015. Our model results further reveal that a 2015 magnitude event, whether conditioned on El Niño or not, was made neither more intense nor more likely due to human-induced climate change over the past century.The intensity of extreme May rainfall over Texas/Oklahoma, analogous to the 2015 event, increases by roughly 5% by the latter half of the 21st Century. No material changes occur in either El Niño-related teleconnections or in overall atmospheric dynamics during extreme May rainfall over the 21st Century. The increased severity of Texas/Oklahoma May rainfall events in the future is principally due to thermodynamic driving, though much less than implied by simple Clausius-Clapeyron scaling arguments given a projected 23% increase in atmospheric precipitable water vapor. Other thermodynamic factors are identified that act in opposition to the increase in atmospheric water vapor thereby reducing effectiveness of overall thermodynamic driving of extreme May rainfall changes over Texas/Oklahoma. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Diagnosing Human-Induced Dynamic and Thermodynamic Drivers of Extreme Rainfall

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/diagnosing-human-induced-dynamic-and-thermodynamic-drivers-of-extreme-hvm5JcSVU4
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0919.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractFactors responsible for extreme monthly rainfall over Texas/Oklahoma during May 2015 are assessed. The event had a return period of at least 400 years, compared to the prior record which was roughly a 100-year event. The event challenges attribution science to disentangle factors because it occurred during a strong El Niño, a natural pattern of variability that affects the region’s springtime rains, and during the warmest global mean temperatures since 1880. Effects of each factor are diagnosed, as is the interplay between El Niño dynamics and human-induced climate change.Analysis of historical climate simulations reveals El Niño was a necessary condition for monthly rains to occur having the severity of May 2015. Our model results further reveal that a 2015 magnitude event, whether conditioned on El Niño or not, was made neither more intense nor more likely due to human-induced climate change over the past century.The intensity of extreme May rainfall over Texas/Oklahoma, analogous to the 2015 event, increases by roughly 5% by the latter half of the 21st Century. No material changes occur in either El Niño-related teleconnections or in overall atmospheric dynamics during extreme May rainfall over the 21st Century. The increased severity of Texas/Oklahoma May rainfall events in the future is principally due to thermodynamic driving, though much less than implied by simple Clausius-Clapeyron scaling arguments given a projected 23% increase in atmospheric precipitable water vapor. Other thermodynamic factors are identified that act in opposition to the increase in atmospheric water vapor thereby reducing effectiveness of overall thermodynamic driving of extreme May rainfall changes over Texas/Oklahoma.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Nov 15, 2017

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

Monthly Plan

  • Read unlimited articles
  • Personalized recommendations
  • No expiration
  • Print 20 pages per month
  • 20% off on PDF purchases
  • Organize your research
  • Get updates on your journals and topic searches

$49/month

Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial

Best Deal — 39% off

Annual Plan

  • All the features of the Professional Plan, but for 39% off!
  • Billed annually
  • No expiration
  • For the normal price of 10 articles elsewhere, you get one full year of unlimited access to articles.

$588

$360/year

billed annually
Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial