AbstractThis study extends the statistical analysis on the dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rate (IR) on sea surface temperature (SST), storm initial intensity (maximum sustained surface wind speed Vmax), and storm size, in terms of the radius of maximum wind (RMW), the radius of 34-kt (AR34; 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) wind, and the outer-core wind skirt parameter DR34 (= AR34 − RMW), for North Atlantic TCs to western North Pacific (WNP) TCs during 1982–2015. Results show that the relationship between the TC maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) and SST also exists in the WNP. TC IR depends strongly on TC intensity and structure, consistent with the findings for North Atlantic TCs. TC IR is positively (negatively) correlated with storm intensity when Vmax is below (above) 70 kt and negatively correlated with the RMW. Rapid intensification (RI) occurs only in a relatively narrow range of parameter space in storm intensity and both inner- and outer-core sizes, with the highest IR appearing for Vmax = 70 kt, RMW ≦ 40 km, AR34 = 150 km, and DR34 = 100 km. The highest frequency of occurrence of intensifying TCs occurs for Vmax ~ 40–60 kt, RMW ~ 20–60 km, AR34 = 200 km, and DR34 = 120 km. Overall, these values are very similar to those for TCs in the North Atlantic. These results suggest the need for the realistic initialization of TC structure in numerical models and the inclusion of size parameters in statistical TC intensity prediction schemes.
Weather and Forecasting – American Meteorological Society
Published: Apr 10, 2018
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