The intermediate time period (e.g., decadal fore- Comments on “A Unified casts) in Hurrell et al. (2009) is hypothesized to be a mix between an initial and boundary value problem. Modeling Approach to Hurrell et al. write the following: Climate System Prediction” The errors induced by incorrect initial conditions shou ld become less apparent as t he simu lations —Rog e R A. Pielke SR. evolve as systematic “ boundary” and external inf lu- University of Colorado at Boulder, ences become more important, but they could still be Boulder, Colorado evident through the course of the simulations. he authors of Hurrell et al. (2009; and that of A good rule of thumb for prediction is that an up- Palmer et al 2008) should be commended for per bound on predictability corresponds approxi- moving toward a more integrated perspective of mately to one life cycle of the phenomenon being climate prediction. The authors of this paper, howev- considered. Hence, one cou ld hope to predict a er, do not present a completely new perspective as they single convective element, cyclone wave, MJO cycle, claim in their text when they write, “There is a new ENSO warm event, or f luctuation
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Dec 1, 2010
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