Comments on "Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Change: A Status Report" Reply Comments on "Detection and patterns of temperature variability on interannual Attribution of Recent Climate Change: A and longer timescales (associated, for example, with ENSO, the North Atlantic oscillation, and Status Report" various decadal and multidecadal patterns of intrin- Barnett et al. (1999) provide an excellent review sic climate variability; cf. Kelly et al. 1999). of progress in model-based detection and attribution Proxies that may be poorly correlated with local during the past few years. Unfortunately, the section temperature records (i.e., from nearby weather sta- on "Paleoclimate proxies" is flawed. We cannot agree tions) may nonetheless capture some of the vari- that "our best estimates of natural variability will come ance of the large-scale temperature patterns. This from CGCMs" or that "paleoproxy data have serious is because the proxy may be responding to a set of shortcomings that preclude their use for this purpose." conditions that are correlated with large-scale cli- On the contrary, we believe that paleoclimate data matic conditions. Consider, for example, the provide the only prospect for realistically estimating drought-sensitive tree-ring latewood width chro- the envelope of natural climate variability and validat- nologies from
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Dec 1, 2000
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