Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation and Associated Processes During the 21st Century over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Using a Cyclone-Relative Approach

Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation and Associated Processes During the 21st Century... AbstractThis study investigates the future change in precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones over eastern North America and the western Atlantic during the cool season (November to March) through the 21st century. A cyclone-relative approach is applied to 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in order to isolate precipitation changes for different cyclone intensities and storm life cycle, as well as determine the relevant physical processes associated with these changes. The historical analysis suggests that models with better performance in predicting extratropical cyclones tend to have smaller precipitation errors, and the ensemble mean has a smaller mean absolute error than the individual models. By the late 21st century, the precipitation amount associated with cyclones increases by 5-25% over the United States (U.S.) East Coast, with about 90% of the increase from the relatively strong (< 990 hPa) and moderate (990-1005 hPa) cyclones. Meanwhile, the precipitation rate increases by 15-25% over the U.S. East Coast for the strong cyclone centers, which is larger than the moderate and weak cyclones. The relatively strong cyclones just inland of the U.S. East Coast have the largest increase (~30%) in precipitation rate, since these centers over land have the largest increase in low-level temperature (and moisture), a decrease (5-13%) in the static stability, and an increase (~5%) in upward motion during the late 21st century. This East Coast region also has an increase in cyclone intensity in the future even though there is a decrease in low-level baroclinicity, which suggests that the latent heat release from heavier precipitation contributes to this storm deepening. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation and Associated Processes During the 21st Century over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Using a Cyclone-Relative Approach

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/changes-in-extratropical-cyclone-precipitation-and-associated-O5XTVKoV6J
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0906.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThis study investigates the future change in precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones over eastern North America and the western Atlantic during the cool season (November to March) through the 21st century. A cyclone-relative approach is applied to 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in order to isolate precipitation changes for different cyclone intensities and storm life cycle, as well as determine the relevant physical processes associated with these changes. The historical analysis suggests that models with better performance in predicting extratropical cyclones tend to have smaller precipitation errors, and the ensemble mean has a smaller mean absolute error than the individual models. By the late 21st century, the precipitation amount associated with cyclones increases by 5-25% over the United States (U.S.) East Coast, with about 90% of the increase from the relatively strong (< 990 hPa) and moderate (990-1005 hPa) cyclones. Meanwhile, the precipitation rate increases by 15-25% over the U.S. East Coast for the strong cyclone centers, which is larger than the moderate and weak cyclones. The relatively strong cyclones just inland of the U.S. East Coast have the largest increase (~30%) in precipitation rate, since these centers over land have the largest increase in low-level temperature (and moisture), a decrease (5-13%) in the static stability, and an increase (~5%) in upward motion during the late 21st century. This East Coast region also has an increase in cyclone intensity in the future even though there is a decrease in low-level baroclinicity, which suggests that the latent heat release from heavier precipitation contributes to this storm deepening.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Aug 3, 2017

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve Freelancer

DeepDyve Pro

Price
FREE
$49/month

$360/year
Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed
Create lists to
organize your research
Export lists, citations
Read DeepDyve articles
Abstract access only
Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles
Print
20 pages/month
PDF Discount
20% off