Climate Variability of a Coupled f Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Surface Model: Implication for the Detection of Global Warming* Walter Orr Roberts Lecture Syukuro Manabe and Ronald J. Stouffer Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey ABSTRACT This lecture evaluates the low-frequency variability of surface air temperature that was obtained from a 1000-yr inte- gration of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land surface model. The model simulates reasonably well the variability of local and global mean surface air temperature (SAT) at decadal timescales. The physical mechanisms responsible for this variability are explored. Based upon an analysis of the time series of the simulated global mean SAT, it is indicated that the warming trend of ~0.5°C century - 1 since the end of the last century was not generated internally through the interac- tion among the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface. Instead, it appears to have been induced by a sustained change in the thermal forcing such as that resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration, solar irradiance, and aerosol loading. 1. Introduction Figure 1 illustrates the time series of glo- One of the emerging tools for the study of climate bally averaged, an- variability is a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land sur- nual mean surface
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Jun 1, 1997
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