Atmospheric dynamics is the largest source of uncertainty in future winter European rainfall

Atmospheric dynamics is the largest source of uncertainty in future winter European rainfall AbstractThe IPCC fifth assessment report highlighted large uncertainty in European precipitation changes in the coming century. This paper investigates the sources of inter-model differences using CMIP5 model European precipitation data. The contribution of atmospheric circulation to differences in precipitation trends is investigated by applying cluster analysis to daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. The resulting classification is used to reconstruct monthly precipitation time series, thereby isolating the component of precipitation variability directly related to atmospheric circulation. Reconstructed observed precipitation, and reconstructions of simulated historical and projection data, are well correlated with the original precipitation series, showing that circulation variability accounts for a substantial fraction of European precipitation variability. Removing the reconstructed precipitation from the original precipitation leaves a residual component related to non-circulation effects (and any small remaining circulation effects). Inter-model spread in residual future European precipitation trends is substantially reduced compared to the spread of the original precipitation trends. Uncertainty in future atmospheric circulation accounts for more than half of the inter-model variance in 21st century precipitation trends for winter months for both northern and southern Europe. Furthermore, a substantial part of this variance is related to different forced dynamical responses in different models, and is therefore potentially reducible. These results highlight the importance of understanding future changes in atmospheric dynamics in achieving more robust projections of regional climate change. Finally, the possible dynamical mechanisms that may drive the future differences in regional circulation and precipitation are illustrated by examining simulated teleconnections with tropical precipitation. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Atmospheric dynamics is the largest source of uncertainty in future winter European rainfall

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/atmospheric-dynamics-is-the-largest-source-of-uncertainty-in-future-p2PEJ5rV2N
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0048.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe IPCC fifth assessment report highlighted large uncertainty in European precipitation changes in the coming century. This paper investigates the sources of inter-model differences using CMIP5 model European precipitation data. The contribution of atmospheric circulation to differences in precipitation trends is investigated by applying cluster analysis to daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. The resulting classification is used to reconstruct monthly precipitation time series, thereby isolating the component of precipitation variability directly related to atmospheric circulation. Reconstructed observed precipitation, and reconstructions of simulated historical and projection data, are well correlated with the original precipitation series, showing that circulation variability accounts for a substantial fraction of European precipitation variability. Removing the reconstructed precipitation from the original precipitation leaves a residual component related to non-circulation effects (and any small remaining circulation effects). Inter-model spread in residual future European precipitation trends is substantially reduced compared to the spread of the original precipitation trends. Uncertainty in future atmospheric circulation accounts for more than half of the inter-model variance in 21st century precipitation trends for winter months for both northern and southern Europe. Furthermore, a substantial part of this variance is related to different forced dynamical responses in different models, and is therefore potentially reducible. These results highlight the importance of understanding future changes in atmospheric dynamics in achieving more robust projections of regional climate change. Finally, the possible dynamical mechanisms that may drive the future differences in regional circulation and precipitation are illustrated by examining simulated teleconnections with tropical precipitation.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Sep 29, 2017

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

Monthly Plan

  • Read unlimited articles
  • Personalized recommendations
  • No expiration
  • Print 20 pages per month
  • 20% off on PDF purchases
  • Organize your research
  • Get updates on your journals and topic searches

$49/month

Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial

Best Deal — 39% off

Annual Plan

  • All the features of the Professional Plan, but for 39% off!
  • Billed annually
  • No expiration
  • For the normal price of 10 articles elsewhere, you get one full year of unlimited access to articles.

$588

$360/year

billed annually
Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial