Assessing the Potential for Rare Precipitation Events with Standardized Anomalies and Ensemble Guidance at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Assessing the Potential for Rare Precipitation Events with Standardized Anomalies and Ensemble... Assessing the Potential for Rare Precipitation Events with Standardized Anomalies and Ensemble Guidance at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center BY NORMAN W . JUNKER, MICHAEL J . BRENNAN* FRANK PEREIRA, MICHAEL J. BODNER, AND RICHARD H . GRUMM ool-season precipitation events account for the we will document how HPC forecasters employed majorit y of precipitation along the West Coast standardize d anomaly fields fro m ensemble forecast Cof the United States fro m California northward systems to help identify tw o relatively rare precipita- to Washington. The importance of the "pineapple tion events along the West Coast.1 express " or "atmospheric rivers" to the moisture Th e Second Forum on the Future Role of the transpor t associated with heavy orographic rainfall Huma n in the Forecast Process identified the need events along the West Coast has been documented for forecasters to be able to recognize the problem in a numbe r of studies (e.g., Lackman n and Gyakum of the day and to discern anomalous, relatively rare 1999; Ralph et al. 2006; Neiman et al. 2008; Junker weather situations which may necessitate deviating et al. 2008). These extreme rainfall events can lead to fro m model guidance (Stuart et http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

Assessing the Potential for Rare Precipitation Events with Standardized Anomalies and Ensemble Guidance at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/2008BAMS2636.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Assessing the Potential for Rare Precipitation Events with Standardized Anomalies and Ensemble Guidance at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center BY NORMAN W . JUNKER, MICHAEL J . BRENNAN* FRANK PEREIRA, MICHAEL J. BODNER, AND RICHARD H . GRUMM ool-season precipitation events account for the we will document how HPC forecasters employed majorit y of precipitation along the West Coast standardize d anomaly fields fro m ensemble forecast Cof the United States fro m California northward systems to help identify tw o relatively rare precipita- to Washington. The importance of the "pineapple tion events along the West Coast.1 express " or "atmospheric rivers" to the moisture Th e Second Forum on the Future Role of the transpor t associated with heavy orographic rainfall Huma n in the Forecast Process identified the need events along the West Coast has been documented for forecasters to be able to recognize the problem in a numbe r of studies (e.g., Lackman n and Gyakum of the day and to discern anomalous, relatively rare 1999; Ralph et al. 2006; Neiman et al. 2008; Junker weather situations which may necessitate deviating et al. 2008). These extreme rainfall events can lead to fro m model guidance (Stuart et

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Apr 1, 2009

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