Assessing the Potential for Rare Precipitation Events with Standardized Anomalies and Ensemble Guidance at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center BY NORMAN W . JUNKER, MICHAEL J . BRENNAN* FRANK PEREIRA, MICHAEL J. BODNER, AND RICHARD H . GRUMM ool-season precipitation events account for the we will document how HPC forecasters employed majorit y of precipitation along the West Coast standardize d anomaly fields fro m ensemble forecast Cof the United States fro m California northward systems to help identify tw o relatively rare precipita- to Washington. The importance of the "pineapple tion events along the West Coast.1 express " or "atmospheric rivers" to the moisture Th e Second Forum on the Future Role of the transpor t associated with heavy orographic rainfall Huma n in the Forecast Process identified the need events along the West Coast has been documented for forecasters to be able to recognize the problem in a numbe r of studies (e.g., Lackman n and Gyakum of the day and to discern anomalous, relatively rare 1999; Ralph et al. 2006; Neiman et al. 2008; Junker weather situations which may necessitate deviating et al. 2008). These extreme rainfall events can lead to fro m model guidance (Stuart et
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: Apr 1, 2009
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