An Evaluation of WRF Rainfall Forecasts in Taiwan during Three Mei-Yu Seasons from 2008 to 2010

An Evaluation of WRF Rainfall Forecasts in Taiwan during Three Mei-Yu Seasons from 2008 to 2010 AbstractThe performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) across Taiwan during three mei-yu seasons between 2008 and 2010 is evaluated using observations from about 400 rain gauges. The QPFs, spanning a range of 12–36 h and run for two nested domains at grid sizes of 15 and 5 km, are verified. Both visual and statistical-based verification methods are used to provide complementary results. More emphasis is placed on intraseasonal variation and the diurnal cycle of mei-yu rainfall, as these aspects have been less well explored previously. While the categorical statistics indicate skill levels comparable to past studies, the model performs better for frontal rainfall in May than monsoon rainfall in June. The two WRF domains are found to capture the overall rainfall amount, its general spatial pattern, the increased rain from May to June, and the basic diurnal cycle to a reasonable extent. However, both domains exhibit a persistent eastward shift in rainfall areas throughout the season, from the upwind slope to near the ridge, mainly because of excessive daytime rainfall over the mountains that starts and ends too early (more so in June), combined with insufficient rainfall upstream (in plains and slopes) since the morning. Also, the 15-km domain has total rainfall amounts closer to the observations, but the 5-km domain suffers a larger underforecast with rainfall only at the resolvable scale. Despite this, the finer mesh is more capable of predicting the peak values and local variations in rainfall and, thus, has the same skill with higher hit percentages, especially toward the high thresholds. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Weather and Forecasting American Meteorological Society

An Evaluation of WRF Rainfall Forecasts in Taiwan during Three Mei-Yu Seasons from 2008 to 2010

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/an-evaluation-of-wrf-rainfall-forecasts-in-taiwan-during-three-mei-yu-Qrio5i44eF
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0434
eISSN
1520-0434
D.O.I.
10.1175/WAF-D-16-0190.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) across Taiwan during three mei-yu seasons between 2008 and 2010 is evaluated using observations from about 400 rain gauges. The QPFs, spanning a range of 12–36 h and run for two nested domains at grid sizes of 15 and 5 km, are verified. Both visual and statistical-based verification methods are used to provide complementary results. More emphasis is placed on intraseasonal variation and the diurnal cycle of mei-yu rainfall, as these aspects have been less well explored previously. While the categorical statistics indicate skill levels comparable to past studies, the model performs better for frontal rainfall in May than monsoon rainfall in June. The two WRF domains are found to capture the overall rainfall amount, its general spatial pattern, the increased rain from May to June, and the basic diurnal cycle to a reasonable extent. However, both domains exhibit a persistent eastward shift in rainfall areas throughout the season, from the upwind slope to near the ridge, mainly because of excessive daytime rainfall over the mountains that starts and ends too early (more so in June), combined with insufficient rainfall upstream (in plains and slopes) since the morning. Also, the 15-km domain has total rainfall amounts closer to the observations, but the 5-km domain suffers a larger underforecast with rainfall only at the resolvable scale. Despite this, the finer mesh is more capable of predicting the peak values and local variations in rainfall and, thus, has the same skill with higher hit percentages, especially toward the high thresholds.

Journal

Weather and ForecastingAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Aug 1, 2017

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

Monthly Plan

  • Read unlimited articles
  • Personalized recommendations
  • No expiration
  • Print 20 pages per month
  • 20% off on PDF purchases
  • Organize your research
  • Get updates on your journals and topic searches

$49/month

Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial

Best Deal — 39% off

Annual Plan

  • All the features of the Professional Plan, but for 39% off!
  • Billed annually
  • No expiration
  • For the normal price of 10 articles elsewhere, you get one full year of unlimited access to articles.

$588

$360/year

billed annually
Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial