Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal

Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal BY RUSSELL L. ELSBERRY he purpose of this brief communication is to forecasts may in part reflect the differences in diffi- culty. Nevertheless, the annual average track error at report that the first research goal of the U.S. TWeather Research Program (USWRP) Hurricane 72 h will be used as the metric for two of the dynami- Landfall (HL) focus has been achieved. This research cal models used at TPC/NHC, and a technique called goal—to produce tropical cyclone track forecast CLIPER (named for a statistical blend of climatology guidance products with an improvement in accuracy and persistence) will be used as an indicator of the degree of difficulty. For the 1995-2003 period to be of 20% over a 5-year period—was set following a Hurricane Landfall workshop during November discussed here, the average CLIPER 72-h error was 1997 (reported in the April 1999 Bulletin). Although about 355 n mi, with a range from about 290 n mi this 20% goal was considered to be challenging in during 1999 to almost 400 n mi during 2001 (Fig. 1). view of the relatively slow improvement since major The number of 72-h forecasts also varies, with a http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/BAMS-86-5-643
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal BY RUSSELL L. ELSBERRY he purpose of this brief communication is to forecasts may in part reflect the differences in diffi- culty. Nevertheless, the annual average track error at report that the first research goal of the U.S. TWeather Research Program (USWRP) Hurricane 72 h will be used as the metric for two of the dynami- Landfall (HL) focus has been achieved. This research cal models used at TPC/NHC, and a technique called goal—to produce tropical cyclone track forecast CLIPER (named for a statistical blend of climatology guidance products with an improvement in accuracy and persistence) will be used as an indicator of the degree of difficulty. For the 1995-2003 period to be of 20% over a 5-year period—was set following a Hurricane Landfall workshop during November discussed here, the average CLIPER 72-h error was 1997 (reported in the April 1999 Bulletin). Although about 355 n mi, with a range from about 290 n mi this 20% goal was considered to be challenging in during 1999 to almost 400 n mi during 2001 (Fig. 1). view of the relatively slow improvement since major The number of 72-h forecasts also varies, with a

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: May 1, 2005

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