Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal

Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal BY RUSSELL L. ELSBERRY he purpose of this brief communication is to forecasts may in part reflect the differences in diffi- culty. Nevertheless, the annual average track error at report that the first research goal of the U.S. TWeather Research Program (USWRP) Hurricane 72 h will be used as the metric for two of the dynami- Landfall (HL) focus has been achieved. This research cal models used at TPC/NHC, and a technique called goal—to produce tropical cyclone track forecast CLIPER (named for a statistical blend of climatology guidance products with an improvement in accuracy and persistence) will be used as an indicator of the degree of difficulty. For the 1995-2003 period to be of 20% over a 5-year period—was set following a Hurricane Landfall workshop during November discussed here, the average CLIPER 72-h error was 1997 (reported in the April 1999 Bulletin). Although about 355 n mi, with a range from about 290 n mi this 20% goal was considered to be challenging in during 1999 to almost 400 n mi during 2001 (Fig. 1). view of the relatively slow improvement since major The number of 72-h forecasts also varies, with a http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ams/achievement-of-uswrp-hurricane-landfall-research-goal-uPfzZRGQQy
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
D.O.I.
10.1175/BAMS-86-5-643
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal BY RUSSELL L. ELSBERRY he purpose of this brief communication is to forecasts may in part reflect the differences in diffi- culty. Nevertheless, the annual average track error at report that the first research goal of the U.S. TWeather Research Program (USWRP) Hurricane 72 h will be used as the metric for two of the dynami- Landfall (HL) focus has been achieved. This research cal models used at TPC/NHC, and a technique called goal—to produce tropical cyclone track forecast CLIPER (named for a statistical blend of climatology guidance products with an improvement in accuracy and persistence) will be used as an indicator of the degree of difficulty. For the 1995-2003 period to be of 20% over a 5-year period—was set following a Hurricane Landfall workshop during November discussed here, the average CLIPER 72-h error was 1997 (reported in the April 1999 Bulletin). Although about 355 n mi, with a range from about 290 n mi this 20% goal was considered to be challenging in during 1999 to almost 400 n mi during 2001 (Fig. 1). view of the relatively slow improvement since major The number of 72-h forecasts also varies, with a

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: May 1, 2005

There are no references for this article.

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off