Achievement of USWRP Hurricane Landfall Research Goal BY RUSSELL L. ELSBERRY he purpose of this brief communication is to forecasts may in part reflect the differences in diffi- culty. Nevertheless, the annual average track error at report that the first research goal of the U.S. TWeather Research Program (USWRP) Hurricane 72 h will be used as the metric for two of the dynami- Landfall (HL) focus has been achieved. This research cal models used at TPC/NHC, and a technique called goal—to produce tropical cyclone track forecast CLIPER (named for a statistical blend of climatology guidance products with an improvement in accuracy and persistence) will be used as an indicator of the degree of difficulty. For the 1995-2003 period to be of 20% over a 5-year period—was set following a Hurricane Landfall workshop during November discussed here, the average CLIPER 72-h error was 1997 (reported in the April 1999 Bulletin). Although about 355 n mi, with a range from about 290 n mi this 20% goal was considered to be challenging in during 1999 to almost 400 n mi during 2001 (Fig. 1). view of the relatively slow improvement since major The number of 72-h forecasts also varies, with a
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: May 1, 2005
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