A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America

A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America AbstractThe western United States was affected by several megadroughts during the last 1200 years, most prominently during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA: 800 to 1300 CE). A null hypothesis is developed to test the possibility that, given a sufficiently long period of time, these events are inevitable and occur purely as a consequence of internal climate variability. The null distribution of this hypothesis is populated by a linear inverse model (LIM) constructed from global sea-surface temperature anomalies and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index data for North America. Despite being trained only on seasonal data from the late 20th century, the LIM produces megadroughts that are comparable in their duration, spatial scale, and magnitude as the most severe events of the last 12 centuries. The null hypothesis therefore cannot be rejected with much confidence when considering these features of megadrought, meaning that similar events are possible today, even without any changes to boundary conditions. In contrast, the observed clustering of megadroughts in the MCA, as well as the change in mean hydroclimate between the MCA and the 1500-2000 period, are more likely to have been caused by either external forcing or by internal climate variability not well sampled during the latter half of the Twentieth Century. Finally, the results demonstrate the LIM is a viable tool for determining whether paleoclimate reconstructions events should be ascribed to external forcings, “out of sample” climate mechanisms, or if they are consistent with the variability observed during the recent period. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
D.O.I.
10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0154.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe western United States was affected by several megadroughts during the last 1200 years, most prominently during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA: 800 to 1300 CE). A null hypothesis is developed to test the possibility that, given a sufficiently long period of time, these events are inevitable and occur purely as a consequence of internal climate variability. The null distribution of this hypothesis is populated by a linear inverse model (LIM) constructed from global sea-surface temperature anomalies and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index data for North America. Despite being trained only on seasonal data from the late 20th century, the LIM produces megadroughts that are comparable in their duration, spatial scale, and magnitude as the most severe events of the last 12 centuries. The null hypothesis therefore cannot be rejected with much confidence when considering these features of megadrought, meaning that similar events are possible today, even without any changes to boundary conditions. In contrast, the observed clustering of megadroughts in the MCA, as well as the change in mean hydroclimate between the MCA and the 1500-2000 period, are more likely to have been caused by either external forcing or by internal climate variability not well sampled during the latter half of the Twentieth Century. Finally, the results demonstrate the LIM is a viable tool for determining whether paleoclimate reconstructions events should be ascribed to external forcings, “out of sample” climate mechanisms, or if they are consistent with the variability observed during the recent period.

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Sep 27, 2017

References

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