why forecasts are not any better considering the the basics of meteorology, critical thinking skills, amount of high-tech equipment. and communications skills; increase on-the-job Weaver described the CAMET study as a collabo- training; provide timely feedback on specific fore- rative effort to understand cognitive aspects of fore- casts; and reevaluate the use of current technology, casting. She said that 42 Air Weather Service and 13 such as integrating multiple weather products and NWS forecasters were interviewed for the study. The allowin g forecasters to directly manipulate the goals of the study were to better understand knowl- data.—Susan A. Tarbell. edge/skills underlying expert forecasting and to iden- High Plains tify ways to improve forecast performance. The focus of the study was cognitive characteris- The chapter's first meeting of 1997 was held at Fort tics in the weather field, such as noticing patterns, seek- Hays State University (FHSU) in Hays, Kansas, on ing information and interpreting data, use of visual 11 March 1997. The 31 attendees included contin- mental models of the atmosphere, and metacognitive gents from the four participating NWS offices in processing (self-evaluation). The study showed that Dodg e City and Goodland, Kansas; and North the skill level of forecasters is highly variable due to Platte and Hastings, Nebraska. Also in attendance little opportunity for mentoring, no critiquing time, and were Roger Pruitt of FHSU, the guest speaker Eric high pressure jobs. Rasmussen, several Hays area guests, David Blanchard Weaver outlined the preliminary recommendations of NSSL, and Brian Motta of Colorado State from the study as to expand formal training to include University. Snow Redistribution Experiment Reports Because nature failed to cooperate in providing Lake Erie snowstorms for scientists to seed this winter, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have not yet been able to determine the feasibility of seeding to redistribute snowfall. YEAR S NOAA' s planned program, directed by Dr. Helmut K. Weickmann (see Bulletin, 51, AGO 1176), was to seed and modify major lake storms to find out if it is possible to spread lake snowfall over a larger land area in such a way that the snow burden is reduced along the shore belt. Although there were no seedable storms during the winter, the scientific team was able to study the basic reactions of certain cloud systems to seeding with silver iodide crystals. Seedings were conducted on 22 and 30 November over the U.S. side of Lake Erie using a DC-6 meteorological aircraft operated by NOAA Research Flight Facility. On 22 November a convective, unstable cloud layer with bases at 610 m and tops between 1524 and 2134 m and a temperature of about -11.5°C at the top was seeded with a silver iodide generator. After seeding in a racetrack shaped pattern 12 mi long and 2 mi wide, water vapor in the clouds immediately began to transform into ice crystals. Mobile ground units under the seeded clouds observed large num- bers of needle-shaped crystals and star-shaped aggregates of crystals. On 30 November relatively stable clouds of six distinct layers from about 518 m at -6.5° C to 3018 m at -13.8°C were seeded. A mobile unit in the target area observed normal rimed snow stars change within minutes to great numbers of tiny individual snow pellets as the seeding pattern drifted over the observa- tion site. There was about a 1000-fold increase in the numbers of snow crystals. Dr. Weickmann also reported observation of an intensive seeding effect due to pollution downwind of local industrial complexes. The Cornell Aeronautical Laboratories of Buffalo, working under a NOAA contract, provided a network of 52 snowgages for the project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 53, 463. 94 5 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – American Meteorological Society
Published: May 1, 1997
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