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Cue utilization in a numerical prediction task

Cue utilization in a numerical prediction task Trained 40 male university students to make numerical predictions of a criterion from a cue. Ss were trained on 2 separate cues that differed in validity. Later, the cues were presented together, simultaneously for 20 Ss and successively for the rest. Ss were asked to use both cues to predict the criterion. A regression model provided an adequate fit to the data, and the Ss showed conservatism similar to the conservatism found in previous Bayesian inference studies. However, further analyses showed consistent deviations from the normative model. The post hoc hypothesis that Ss were regressing each cue, then averaging the regressed values, was supported. Searching for heuristic strategies, rather than relying on the apparent fit of normative models, was advocated. (19 ref) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance American Psychological Association

Cue utilization in a numerical prediction task

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Publisher
American Psychological Association
Copyright
Copyright © 1975 American Psychological Association
ISSN
0096-1523
eISSN
1939-1277
DOI
10.1037/0096-1523.1.1.77
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Trained 40 male university students to make numerical predictions of a criterion from a cue. Ss were trained on 2 separate cues that differed in validity. Later, the cues were presented together, simultaneously for 20 Ss and successively for the rest. Ss were asked to use both cues to predict the criterion. A regression model provided an adequate fit to the data, and the Ss showed conservatism similar to the conservatism found in previous Bayesian inference studies. However, further analyses showed consistent deviations from the normative model. The post hoc hypothesis that Ss were regressing each cue, then averaging the regressed values, was supported. Searching for heuristic strategies, rather than relying on the apparent fit of normative models, was advocated. (19 ref)

Journal

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance – American Psychological Association

Published: Feb 1, 1975

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