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Reply <h2>Introduction</h2> In Reynold J. Stone’’s (RJS) comments ( Stone 2011 ) on a trend analysis of daily temperature extreme indices in South America by Vincent et al. (2005) , he suggested that the authors may have used a statistical method incorrectly, which could have led to misleading results. Specifically, RJS indicated that Vincent et al. (2005) did not assess the presence of changepoints before applying Sen’’s method for estimating linear trends ( Sen 1968 ). As a result, findings of a significant decreasing trend of 5.5%% in the percentage of cold nights and increasing trend of 5.6%% in the percentage of warm nights from 1960––2000 could have been an artifact of inappropriate statistical analysis. RJS suggested, instead, a decreasing step of 3.5%% in 1976 for the percentage of cold nights and an increasing step of 3.8%% for 1979 in the percentage of warm nights, without any significant trends on either side of the changepoint. RJS speculated that these abrupt changes could have been a response to the well-known large-scale climate shift around 1976/1977, corresponding to a phase shift in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) ( Miller et al. 1994 ; Agosta and Compagnucci 2008 ). As a matter http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
DOI
10.1175/2011JCLI3786.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

<h2>Introduction</h2> In Reynold J. Stone’’s (RJS) comments ( Stone 2011 ) on a trend analysis of daily temperature extreme indices in South America by Vincent et al. (2005) , he suggested that the authors may have used a statistical method incorrectly, which could have led to misleading results. Specifically, RJS indicated that Vincent et al. (2005) did not assess the presence of changepoints before applying Sen’’s method for estimating linear trends ( Sen 1968 ). As a result, findings of a significant decreasing trend of 5.5%% in the percentage of cold nights and increasing trend of 5.6%% in the percentage of warm nights from 1960––2000 could have been an artifact of inappropriate statistical analysis. RJS suggested, instead, a decreasing step of 3.5%% in 1976 for the percentage of cold nights and an increasing step of 3.8%% for 1979 in the percentage of warm nights, without any significant trends on either side of the changepoint. RJS speculated that these abrupt changes could have been a response to the well-known large-scale climate shift around 1976/1977, corresponding to a phase shift in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) ( Miller et al. 1994 ; Agosta and Compagnucci 2008 ). As a matter

Journal

Journal of ClimateAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Apr 13, 2010

References