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Indirect Aerosol Effect Increases CMIP5 Models’ Projected Arctic Warming

Indirect Aerosol Effect Increases CMIP5 Models’ Projected Arctic Warming Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. The CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Indirect Aerosol Effect Increases CMIP5 Models’ Projected Arctic Warming

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 American Meteorological Society
ISSN
0894-8755
eISSN
1520-0442
DOI
10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0362.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. The CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.

Journal

Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society

Published: May 20, 2015

References

  • Polar amplification of surface warming on an aquaplanet in “ghost forcing” experiments without sea ice feedback
    Alexeev
  • The early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic—A possible mechanism
    Bengtsson
  • Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability
    Booth