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Impact of Satellite-Derived Rapid-Scan Wind Observations on Numerical Model Forecasts of Hurricane Katrina

Impact of Satellite-Derived Rapid-Scan Wind Observations on Numerical Model Forecasts of... The impacts of special Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) rapid-scan (RS) wind observations on numerical model 24––120-h track forecasts of Hurricane Katrina are examined in a series of data assimilation and forecast experiments. The RS wind vectors are derived from geostationary satellites by tracking cloud motions through successive 5-min images. In these experiments, RS wind observations are added over the area 15°°––60°°N, 60°°––110°°W, and they supplement the observations used in operational forecasts. The inclusion of RS wind observations reduces errors in numerical forecasts of the Katrina landfall position at 1200 UTC 29 August 2005 by an average of 12%% compared to control cases that include ““targeted”” dropsonde observations in the Katrina environment. The largest average improvements are made to the 84- to 120-h Katrina track forecasts, rather than to the short-range track forecasts. These results suggest that RS wind observations can potentially be used in future cases to improve track forecasts of tropical cyclones. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Monthly Weather Review American Meteorological Society

Impact of Satellite-Derived Rapid-Scan Wind Observations on Numerical Model Forecasts of Hurricane Katrina

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0493
DOI
10.1175/2008MWR2627.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The impacts of special Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) rapid-scan (RS) wind observations on numerical model 24––120-h track forecasts of Hurricane Katrina are examined in a series of data assimilation and forecast experiments. The RS wind vectors are derived from geostationary satellites by tracking cloud motions through successive 5-min images. In these experiments, RS wind observations are added over the area 15°°––60°°N, 60°°––110°°W, and they supplement the observations used in operational forecasts. The inclusion of RS wind observations reduces errors in numerical forecasts of the Katrina landfall position at 1200 UTC 29 August 2005 by an average of 12%% compared to control cases that include ““targeted”” dropsonde observations in the Katrina environment. The largest average improvements are made to the 84- to 120-h Katrina track forecasts, rather than to the short-range track forecasts. These results suggest that RS wind observations can potentially be used in future cases to improve track forecasts of tropical cyclones.

Journal

Monthly Weather Review – American Meteorological Society

Published: Apr 29, 2008

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