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Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part I: Meteorological Evaluation

Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part I: Meteorological... This paper addresses the question of whether it is better to include lower-resolution members of a nested suite of numerical precipitation forecasts to increase ensemble size, or to utilize high-resolution members only to maximize forecast details in regions of complex terrain. A short-range ensemble forecast (SREF) system is formed from three models running in nested configurations at 108-, 36-, 12-, and 4-km horizontal grid spacings. The forecasts are sampled at 27 precipitation-gauge locations, representing 15 pluvial watersheds in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. This is a region of complex topography characterized by high mountains, glaciers, fjords, and land–ocean boundaries. Matching forecast–observation pairs are analyzed for two consecutive wet seasons: October 2003–March 2004 and October 2004–March 2005. The northwest coast of North America is typically subject to intense landfalling Pacific cyclones and frontal systems during these months. Using forecast analysis tools that are well designed for SREF systems, it is found that utilizing the full suite of ensemble members, including the lowest-resolution members, produced the highest quality probabilistic forecasts of precipitation. A companion paper assesses the economic value of SREF probabilistic forecasts for hydroelectric operations. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Weather and Forecasting American Meteorological Society

Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part I: Meteorological Evaluation

McCollor, Doug; Stull, Roland
Weather and Forecasting , Volume 23 (4) – Aug 2, 2007
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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © 2007 American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0434
DOI
10.1175/2008WAF2007063.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper addresses the question of whether it is better to include lower-resolution members of a nested suite of numerical precipitation forecasts to increase ensemble size, or to utilize high-resolution members only to maximize forecast details in regions of complex terrain. A short-range ensemble forecast (SREF) system is formed from three models running in nested configurations at 108-, 36-, 12-, and 4-km horizontal grid spacings. The forecasts are sampled at 27 precipitation-gauge locations, representing 15 pluvial watersheds in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. This is a region of complex topography characterized by high mountains, glaciers, fjords, and land–ocean boundaries. Matching forecast–observation pairs are analyzed for two consecutive wet seasons: October 2003–March 2004 and October 2004–March 2005. The northwest coast of North America is typically subject to intense landfalling Pacific cyclones and frontal systems during these months. Using forecast analysis tools that are well designed for SREF systems, it is found that utilizing the full suite of ensemble members, including the lowest-resolution members, produced the highest quality probabilistic forecasts of precipitation. A companion paper assesses the economic value of SREF probabilistic forecasts for hydroelectric operations.

Journal

Weather and Forecasting – American Meteorological Society

Published: Aug 2, 2007

References

  • A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic precipitation forecasts from ensemble model integrations.
    Anderson
  • Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration.
    Atger
  • The Canadian MC2: A semi-Lagrangian, semi-implicit wideband atmospheric model suited for finescale process studies and simulation.
    Benoit
  • Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability.
    Brier