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- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2006 American Meteorological Society
- ISSN
- 0894-8755
- eISSN
- 1520-0442
- DOI
- 10.1175/JCLI3840.1
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
In <ext-link ext-link-type="doi" xlink:href="10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3645:LPOIMR>2.0.CO;2">DelSole and Shukla (2002, hereafter DS) , the error concerns the predictor called TE, which measured the December–February (DJF) average surface temperature in northern Europe. Specifically, DS erroneously used the value of TE corresponding to the winter after the Indian summer monsoon, rather than the winter value before the Indian summer monsoon, as would be available in an ordinary forecast situation. This error is of some interest because, as noted in DS , the predictor TE appeared to be the single most useful predictor of Indian monsoon rainfall out of all predictors examined. A second, independent reason for revisiting DS is that the Indian monsoon rainfall dataset from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, was updated in December 2002, after publication of DS . The updated dataset differs from that used in DS only after 1993. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the result of using the (more appropriate) value of TE corresponding to the winter before the Indian summer monsoon, and using the updated rainfall data. The essential result is that the prior winter value of TE is not an important predictor for Indian summer monsoon, at least compared to
Journal
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Jan 18, 2006