Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Assessing Predictive Potential Associated with the MJO during the Boreal Winter

Assessing Predictive Potential Associated with the MJO during the Boreal Winter AbstractIn this paper, the question of potential predictability in meteorological variables associated with skillful prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is analyzed. The analysis is motivated by the fact that dynamical prediction systems are now capable of predicting MJO up to 30 days or earlier (measured in terms of anomaly correlation for RMM indices). Translating recent gains in MJO prediction skill and relating them back to potential for predicting meteorological variables—for example, precipitation and surface temperature—is not straightforward because of a chain of steps that go into the computation and evaluation of RMM indices. This paper assesses potential predictability in meteorological variables that could be attributed to skillful prediction of the MJO. The analysis is based on the observational data alone and assesses the upper limit of MJO-associated predictability that could be achieved. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Monthly Weather Review American Meteorological Society

Assessing Predictive Potential Associated with the MJO during the Boreal Winter

Monthly Weather Review , Volume 148 (12): 13 – Dec 8, 2020

Loading next page...
 
/lp/american-meteorological-society/assessing-predictive-potential-associated-with-the-mjo-during-the-Uy3LUZUO00
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0493
eISSN
1520-0493
DOI
10.1175/MWR-D-20-0128.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, the question of potential predictability in meteorological variables associated with skillful prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is analyzed. The analysis is motivated by the fact that dynamical prediction systems are now capable of predicting MJO up to 30 days or earlier (measured in terms of anomaly correlation for RMM indices). Translating recent gains in MJO prediction skill and relating them back to potential for predicting meteorological variables—for example, precipitation and surface temperature—is not straightforward because of a chain of steps that go into the computation and evaluation of RMM indices. This paper assesses potential predictability in meteorological variables that could be attributed to skillful prediction of the MJO. The analysis is based on the observational data alone and assesses the upper limit of MJO-associated predictability that could be achieved.

Journal

Monthly Weather ReviewAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Dec 8, 2020

References