CLINICAL SCIENCES Validation of a Prediction Algorithm for Progression to Advanced Macular Degeneration Subtypes Johanna M. Seddon, MD, ScM; Robyn Reynolds, MPH; Yi Yu, PhD; Bernard Rosner, PhD Importance: Risk score models predicting the progres- tion cohort comprised 980 individuals with no, early, or sion of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) to its ad- intermediate AMD in at least one eye at baseline, of whom vanced forms may be useful for targeting high-risk indi- 294 progressed to advanced stages of geographic atro- viduals for lifestyle changes that reduce risk for AMD phy or neovascular disease. progression, helping with differential diagnosis of AMD and its subtypes, identifying high-risk subjects for participa- Main Outcome Measure: Progression to advanced tion in clinical trials, and selecting appropriate therapies. AMD. Objective: To develop and validate a predictive model Results: For the model with all nongenetic and genetic for progression to advanced stages of AMD in 2 inde- factors, the respective C statistics for progression to ad- pendent cohorts. vanced AMD in the derivation and validation samples were 0.858 and 0.750 at 5 years and 0.884 and 0.809 at 10 years, Design: Participants in a validation cohort and an in- and models also discriminated risk for
JAMA Ophthalmology – American Medical Association
Published: Apr 1, 2013
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