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Abstract • The federally chartered Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee projected a shortage of approximately 12,000 general and child psychiatrists by 1990. The committee's methods of analysis and recommendations have been criticized on grounds ranging from the accuracy of its data to the appropriateness of federal involvement in freemarket issues. Yet the GMENAC report appears to have contributed to a recent reversal of psychiatric recruitment trends, and psychiatrists should be aware of its further implications for clinical and academic psychiatry. We analyzed the GMENAC process as one element among many that will determine future health care personnel development trends. References 1. Freedman DX: The alma mater is smoking: This is dangerous to your health! Arch Gen Psychiatry 1976;33:407-410.Crossref 2. Eaton JS, Goldstein LS: Psychiatry in crisis . Am J Psychiatry 1977;134:642-645. 3. Pardes H: Countering psychiatry's manpower shortage . Psychomatics 1979;54:377-378.Crossref 4. Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee: Report to the Secretary, US Dept of Health and Human Services publications (HRA) 81-651-657. Hyattsville, Md, Health Resources Administration, Office of Graduate Medical Education, 1980, vols 1-7. 5. Flexner A: Medical Education in the United States and Canada: A Report to the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching . Boston, Updyke, 1910. 6. The Health Professions Educational Assistance Act of 1976. Public Law 94-484. US Congress, Senate, 94th Congress, second session, Jan 19, 1976. 7. Interim Report of the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee: Report to the Secretary, US Dept of Health and Human Services publication (HRA) 79-633. Hyattsville, Md, Health Services Administration, Office of Graduate Medical Education, 1979, pp 164-201. 8. Turoff M, Lindstone H: The Delphi Method: Techniques and Application . Reading, Mass, Addison-Wesley Publishing Co Inc, 1975. 9. Delbecq AL, Van de Ven AH, Gustafson DH, et al: Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Process . Glenview, Ill, Scott Foresman & Co, 1975. 10. Physician Requirements-1990-for Psychiatry: Ramifications of the Delphi Panel Deliberations, US Dept of Health and Human Services publication (HRA) 81-638. Hyattsville, Md, Health Resources Administration, Office of Graduate Medical Education, 1981. 11. Regier DA, Goldberg ID, Taube CA: The de facto US mental health services system: A public health perspective . Arch Gen Psychiatry 1978;35:685-693.Crossref 12. Plaut EA, Freedman DX: Abuse of scientific studies in public policy determination . Arch Gen Psychiatry 1981;38:114. 13. Current Estimates From the Health Interim Survey, series 10, No. 126, US Dept of Health and Human Services publication (PHS) 78-1554. Hyattsville, Md, National Center for Health Statistics, 1977. 14. Dohrenwend BP, Dohrenwend BS, Gould MS, et al: Mental Illness in the United States: Epidemiological Estimates . New York, Praeger Publishers, 1980. 15. Eaton WW, Regier DA, Locke BZ, et al: The epidemiologic catchment area program of the National Institute of Mental Health . Public Health Rep 1981;96:319-325. 16. Spurlock J, individual commentary in Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee: Report to the Secretary, US Dept of Health and Human Services publication (HRA) 81-651. Hyattsville, Md, Health Resources Administration, Office of Graduate Medical Education, 1980, vol 5, pp 16-17. 17. Department of Health and Human Services Report to the Senate: Personnel Needs for Mental Health Services. US Dept of Health and Human Services, Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration, National Institute of Mental Health, June 1980. 18. Heatherly C (ed): Mandate for Leadership: Policy Management in a Conservative Administration . Washington, DC, Heritage Foundation, January 1981. 19. Petersen ES, Crowley AE, Etzel SI, et al: Section 2: Undergraduate medical education . JAMA 1980;246:2917. 20. Directory of Residency Training Programs . Chicago, American Medical Association, 1982, p 59. 21. National Health Service Corps Scholarship Program Applicant Information Bulletin . Hyattsville, Md, National Health Service Corps, Health Resources Administration, October 1979, p 7. 22. Taintor Z, Robinowitz C: The career choice of psychiatry: A national conference on recruitment into psychiatry. J Psychiatr Educ 1980;4: 323-326. 23. Graettinger JS: Datagram: Results of the national resident matching program for 1981 . J Med Educ 1981;56:372-374. 24. Graettinger JS: Datagram: Results of the NRMP for 1982 . J Med Educ 1982;57:420-421. 25. Directory of Residency Training Programs. Chicago, American Medical Association, 1981. 26. Kindig DA, Dunham NC: A future shortage of residency training programs—dilemma or opportunity? N Engl J Med 1982;306:1484-1485.Crossref 27. Pardes H: Medical education and recruitment in psychiatry . Am J Psychiatry 1982;139:1033-1035.
Archives of General Psychiatry – American Medical Association
Published: Jan 1, 1983
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