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Prevalence and Incidence Trends for Diagnosed Diabetes Among Adults Aged 20 to 79 Years, United States, 1980-2012

Prevalence and Incidence Trends for Diagnosed Diabetes Among Adults Aged 20 to 79 Years, United... ImportanceAlthough the prevalence and incidence of diabetes have increased in the United States in recent decades, no studies have systematically examined long-term, national trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes. ObjectiveTo examine long-term trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes to determine whether there have been periods of acceleration or deceleration in rates. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsWe analyzed 1980-2012 data for 664 969 adults aged 20 to 79 years from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to estimate incidence and prevalence rates for the overall civilian, noninstitutionalized, US population and by demographic subgroups (age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational level). Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe annual percentage change (APC) in rates of the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes (type 1 and type 2 combined). ResultsThe APC for age-adjusted prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes did not change significantly during the 1980s (for prevalence, 0.2% [95% CI, −0.9% to 1.4%], P = .69; for incidence, −0.1% [95% CI, −2.5% to 2.4%], P = .93), but each increased sharply during 1990-2008 (for prevalence, 4.5% [95% CI, 4.1% to 4.9%], P < .001; for incidence, 4.7% [95% CI, 3.8% to 5.6%], P < .001) before leveling off with no significant change during 2008-2012 (for prevalence, 0.6% [95% CI, −1.9% to 3.0%], P = .64; for incidence, −5.4% [95% CI, −11.3% to 0.9%], P = .09). The prevalence per 100 persons was 3.5 (95% CI, 3.2 to 3.9) in 1990, 7.9 (95% CI, 7.4 to 8.3) in 2008, and 8.3 (95% CI, 7.9 to 8.7) in 2012. The incidence per 1000 persons was 3.2 (95% CI, 2.2 to 4.1) in 1990, 8.8 (95% CI, 7.4 to 10.3) in 2008, and 7.1 (95% CI, 6.1 to 8.2) in 2012. Trends in many demographic subpopulations were similar to these overall trends. However, incidence rates among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic adults continued to increase (for interaction, P = .03 for non-Hispanic black adults and P = .01 for Hispanic adults) at rates significantly greater than for non-Hispanic white adults. In addition, the rate of increase in prevalence was higher for adults who had a high school education or less compared with those who had more than a high school education (for interaction, P = .006 for <high school and P < .001 for high school). Conclusions and RelevanceAnalyses of nationally representative data from 1980 to 2012 suggest a doubling of the incidence and prevalence of diabetes during 1990-2008, and a plateauing between 2008 and 2012. However, there appear to be continued increases in the prevalence or incidence of diabetes among subgroups, including non-Hispanic black and Hispanic subpopulations and those with a high school education or less. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png JAMA American Medical Association

Prevalence and Incidence Trends for Diagnosed Diabetes Among Adults Aged 20 to 79 Years, United States, 1980-2012

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References (38)

Publisher
American Medical Association
Copyright
Copyright 2014 American Medical Association. All Rights Reserved. Applicable FARS/DFARS Restrictions Apply to Government Use.
ISSN
0098-7484
eISSN
1538-3598
DOI
10.1001/jama.2014.11494
pmid
25247518
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

ImportanceAlthough the prevalence and incidence of diabetes have increased in the United States in recent decades, no studies have systematically examined long-term, national trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes. ObjectiveTo examine long-term trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes to determine whether there have been periods of acceleration or deceleration in rates. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsWe analyzed 1980-2012 data for 664 969 adults aged 20 to 79 years from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to estimate incidence and prevalence rates for the overall civilian, noninstitutionalized, US population and by demographic subgroups (age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational level). Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe annual percentage change (APC) in rates of the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes (type 1 and type 2 combined). ResultsThe APC for age-adjusted prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes did not change significantly during the 1980s (for prevalence, 0.2% [95% CI, −0.9% to 1.4%], P = .69; for incidence, −0.1% [95% CI, −2.5% to 2.4%], P = .93), but each increased sharply during 1990-2008 (for prevalence, 4.5% [95% CI, 4.1% to 4.9%], P < .001; for incidence, 4.7% [95% CI, 3.8% to 5.6%], P < .001) before leveling off with no significant change during 2008-2012 (for prevalence, 0.6% [95% CI, −1.9% to 3.0%], P = .64; for incidence, −5.4% [95% CI, −11.3% to 0.9%], P = .09). The prevalence per 100 persons was 3.5 (95% CI, 3.2 to 3.9) in 1990, 7.9 (95% CI, 7.4 to 8.3) in 2008, and 8.3 (95% CI, 7.9 to 8.7) in 2012. The incidence per 1000 persons was 3.2 (95% CI, 2.2 to 4.1) in 1990, 8.8 (95% CI, 7.4 to 10.3) in 2008, and 7.1 (95% CI, 6.1 to 8.2) in 2012. Trends in many demographic subpopulations were similar to these overall trends. However, incidence rates among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic adults continued to increase (for interaction, P = .03 for non-Hispanic black adults and P = .01 for Hispanic adults) at rates significantly greater than for non-Hispanic white adults. In addition, the rate of increase in prevalence was higher for adults who had a high school education or less compared with those who had more than a high school education (for interaction, P = .006 for <high school and P < .001 for high school). Conclusions and RelevanceAnalyses of nationally representative data from 1980 to 2012 suggest a doubling of the incidence and prevalence of diabetes during 1990-2008, and a plateauing between 2008 and 2012. However, there appear to be continued increases in the prevalence or incidence of diabetes among subgroups, including non-Hispanic black and Hispanic subpopulations and those with a high school education or less.

Journal

JAMAAmerican Medical Association

Published: Sep 24, 2014

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