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Evidence Under Judgment

Evidence Under Judgment COMMENTARY Can We Oversee Our Own Decision Making? You cannot solve a problem from the same representativeness heuristic, in which tic is the response that the likeli- consciousness that created it. You must probabilities are evaluated by the de- hood for all groups is the same. This learn to see the world anew. gree to which A is representative of B, answer evaluates the probability based Albert Einstein that is, by the degree to which A re- on how representative a group is of a sembles B. specific population without regard to N DEFINING EVIDENCE- sample size. In reality, the likeli- based medicine, Sackett Consider the following prob- hood of obtaining the average height and colleagues stated that lem: The prevalence of a disease in of 6 ft is lowest in the 10-person group practicing it “means inte- a population is 10 in 700. A test for and increases progressively with in- I grating individual clinical the disease has a false-positive rate creasing sample size, since central expertise with the best available ex- of 5%. What is the chance that a per- measures in a small group are more ternal clinical evidence from sys- son with a positive test http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png JAMA Internal Medicine American Medical Association

Evidence Under Judgment

Zilberberg, Marya D.
JAMA Internal Medicine , Volume 171 (16) – Sep 12, 2011
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References (8)

Publisher
American Medical Association
Copyright
Copyright 2011 American Medical Association. All Rights Reserved. Applicable FARS/DFARS Restrictions Apply to Government Use.
ISSN
2168-6106
eISSN
2168-6114
DOI
10.1001/archinternmed.2011.355
pmid
21911636
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

COMMENTARY Can We Oversee Our Own Decision Making? You cannot solve a problem from the same representativeness heuristic, in which tic is the response that the likeli- consciousness that created it. You must probabilities are evaluated by the de- hood for all groups is the same. This learn to see the world anew. gree to which A is representative of B, answer evaluates the probability based Albert Einstein that is, by the degree to which A re- on how representative a group is of a sembles B. specific population without regard to N DEFINING EVIDENCE- sample size. In reality, the likeli- based medicine, Sackett Consider the following prob- hood of obtaining the average height and colleagues stated that lem: The prevalence of a disease in of 6 ft is lowest in the 10-person group practicing it “means inte- a population is 10 in 700. A test for and increases progressively with in- I grating individual clinical the disease has a false-positive rate creasing sample size, since central expertise with the best available ex- of 5%. What is the chance that a per- measures in a small group are more ternal clinical evidence from sys- son with a positive test

Journal

JAMA Internal Medicine – American Medical Association

Published: Sep 12, 2011

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