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REVIEW Assessment of Claims of Improved Prediction Beyond the Framingham Risk Score Ioanna Tzoulaki, PhD Context With heightened interest in predictive medicine, many studies try to docu- ment information that can improve prediction of major clinical outcomes. George Liberopoulos, MD John P. A. Ioannidis, MD Objective To evaluate the reported design and analysis of studies that examined whether additional predictors improve predictive performance when added to the Framingham MPHASIS ON IMPROVEMENTS IN risk score (FRS), one of the most widely validated and cited clinical prediction scores. prediction has become a hall- Study Selection Two independent investigators searched 1908 articles citing the mark of the quest for personal- article that described the FRS in 1998 until September 2009 through the ISI Web of Eized and individualized medi- Knowledge database. Articles were eligible if they included any analyses comparing cine, and the predictive literature is the predictive performance of the FRS vs the FRS plus some additional predictor for a drawing increasing attention in medi- prospectively assessed outcome. cine. However, the utility of this litera- Data Analyses We recorded information on FRS calculation, modeling of addi- ture can be hampered by methodologi- tional predictors, outcomes assessed, population evaluated, subgroup analysis docu-
JAMA – American Medical Association
Published: Dec 2, 2009
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