Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound†

Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound† AbstractWhen the policy rate is at the zero lower bound (ZLB), an increase in uncertainty regarding the future path of exogenous shocks alters the conditional expectations of relevant prices facing households and firms. Accordingly, an increase in uncertainty alters consumption, inflation, and output to a greater extent when the policy rate is constrained than otherwise. Using an empirically rich sticky-price model calibrated to match key features of the US economy, I find that uncertainty can exacerbate the decline of output by about 10 percent in a deep recession that pushes the policy rate to the ZLB. (JEL E23, E31, E32, E43, E52, E58) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics American Economic Association

Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound†

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Publisher
American Economic Association
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 © American Economic Association
ISSN
1945-7715
D.O.I.
10.1257/mac.20140253
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractWhen the policy rate is at the zero lower bound (ZLB), an increase in uncertainty regarding the future path of exogenous shocks alters the conditional expectations of relevant prices facing households and firms. Accordingly, an increase in uncertainty alters consumption, inflation, and output to a greater extent when the policy rate is constrained than otherwise. Using an empirically rich sticky-price model calibrated to match key features of the US economy, I find that uncertainty can exacerbate the decline of output by about 10 percent in a deep recession that pushes the policy rate to the ZLB. (JEL E23, E31, E32, E43, E52, E58)

Journal

American Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsAmerican Economic Association

Published: Jul 1, 2017

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